DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS

This research paper examines Tanzania's energy options, arguing that decentralized renewable energy is superior to large-scale hydropower, specifically the proposed Stiegler's Gorge dam, for achieving sustainable development and broad-based electrification.

• Tanzania faces significant electrification gaps, with only 32.8% of the total population and 16.9% of the rural population having access to electricity in 2016. The lack of clean energy leads to high social and environmental costs, as biomass accounted for approximately 88.6% of total energy consumption in 2009, resulting in annual deforestation of between 100,000ha and 125,000ha due to charcoal production.
• The proposed hydroelectric dam at Stiegler's Gorge on the Rufiji River, estimated to cost $3.6 billion and potentially generate 2,100MW, poses severe risks to the Selous World Heritage Site and downstream ecosystems. The author argues that the claim that the dam would facilitate large-scale irrigated agriculture on the Lower Rufiji Floodplain is a debunked myth, as the area is unsuitable for irrigation for economic and practical reasons.
• Large-scale hydropower in Tanzania is increasingly risky due to unpredictable rainfall patterns and droughts, which have already caused load shedding and forced reliance on emergency fossil fuel plants. Additionally, there is a geographic mismatch between hydropower supply centers in the south-west and demand centers in the north and east, compounded by a weak national transmission grid.
• While Tanzania has significant natural gas reserves (roughly 60TCF) and plans for an LNG plant in Lindi, relying on gas may hinder the transition to a low-carbon path by crowding out solar and wind investments. The author suggests that Tanzania should leapfrog the natural gas phase to avoid high environmental costs and the capital expenses of national grid upgrades.
• Decentralized renewable energy, particularly solar PV and wind, is identified as the optimal substitute for fossil fuels and large hydro. A study found 20,801km² of land 'most suitable' for photovoltaic (PV) installations and 3,584km² for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) in Tanzania. Micro-grids are especially effective for remote areas, avoiding the high cost of grid expansion, which is estimated at $2,000 per additional house.

APA

HARVEY, R. (2018). DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf

Chicago

HARVEY, ROSS. DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=HARVEY |first1=ROSS |title=DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harvey2018damned, author = {HARVEY, ROSS}, title = {{DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }