DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS

The paper examines Tanzania's electrification challenges, noting that only 32.8% of the population had electricity access in 2016. It critiques the proposed $3.6 billion Stiegler's Gorge hydroelectric dam, arguing that its benefits are outweighed by risks to the Selous World Heritage Site and downstream livelihoods in the Lower Rufiji. The author suggests that Tanzania should leapfrog traditional centralized infrastructure in favor of a combination of large-scale and micro-scale solar and wind power to achieve inclusive development without causing significant biodiversity loss.

• Tanzania faces significant electrification gaps, with only 32.8% of the total population and 16.9% of the rural population having access to electricity as of 2016. The lack of clean energy leads to high social costs, as biomass accounted for approximately 88.6% of total energy consumption in 2009, causing indoor air pollution and deforestation of 100,000ha to 125,000ha annually.
• The proposed $3.6 billion hydroelectric dam at Stiegler's Gorge on the Rufiji River poses severe risks to the Selous World Heritage Site and downstream ecosystems. The project could impair the Lower Rufiji floodplain, delta, and the largest mangrove forest in East Africa, potentially undermining fisheries, agricultural productivity, and the livelihoods of approximately 150,000 people.
• Claims that the Stiegler's Gorge dam would facilitate large-scale irrigated agriculture on the Lower Rufiji Floodplain are considered a debunked myth. The 85,000ha area is unsuitable for irrigation due to patchy soil, variable rainfall, and high estimated costs of approximately $55,000 per hectare for necessary embankments.
• Tanzania's reliance on large hydropower is increasingly risky due to changing rainfall patterns and droughts, which have already caused load shedding. Additionally, there is a geographic mismatch between hydropower supply centers in the south-west and demand centers in the north and east, exacerbated by a weak national transmission grid.
• While natural gas reserves (estimated at 60 TCF) offer a more flexible and economically attractive alternative to large hydro, they risk locking the country into a carbon-intensive path and crowding out investments in wind and solar power.
• Decentralized renewable energy, particularly solar PV and wind, is identified as the optimal substitute for fossil fuels and large hydro. A study found 20,801km² of land 'most suitable' for photovoltaic (PV) installations and 3,584km² for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) in Tanzania, excluding protected areas.
• Micro-grids are more efficient for reaching remote rural populations than expanding the national grid, which costs approximately $2,000 per additional house. These systems avoid the financial lock-in of mega-infrastructure and can be supported by new business models, such as mobile network operators using mini-grids to power masts.

APA

HARVEY, R. (2018). DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf

Chicago

HARVEY, ROSS. DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=HARVEY |first1=ROSS |title=DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harvey2018damned, author = {HARVEY, ROSS}, title = {{DAMNED IF YOU DAM: TANZANIA’S ENERGY DILEMMAS}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Occasional-Paper-281.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }