Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel

This research paper analyzes the rapid growth and tactical evolution of the Islamic State–Sahel Province (IS-SP) between 2019 and 2026. It details how IS-SP has transitioned from a small affiliate to a deadly regional force through structural governance, tactical innovations—including the first use of drones in Niger—and increased strategic guidance from IS Core. The document highlights the collapse of regional security architectures and the escalating rivalry between IS-SP and the al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM as primary drivers of instability in the Sahel.

• Between 2019 and 2024, Islamic State–Sahel Province (IS-SP) experienced a massive increase in manpower, growing from approximately 200 members to about 3,000, representing a 1,400% increase. By 2024, it had operationally outperformed the Islamic State–West Africa Province (IS-WAP) and became one of the deadliest IS affiliates globally.
• On 29 January 2026, IS-SP attacked Diori Hamani International Airport and Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger. This event marked the first time the group used drones in direct combat in the country and suggested operational cooperation with IS-WAP, which has used drones since December 2024 in Nigeria's Borno State.
• IS-SP has evolved its strategy from ethnic-based targeting to a structured model of territorial control and governance. In Mali's eastern Menaka region, the group has implemented economic control, health services management, and Islamic courts, resulting in its controlled territory doubling by mid-2023.
• The rivalry between IS-SP and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has escalated into full-scale competition. Violence between all parties in the conflict increased by 50% in 2023 compared to 2021, and in November 2025, IS-SP killed over 60 JNIM militants in northeast Burkina Faso.
• The Sahel is increasingly being used as a platform for transnational jihadi activity, with IS Core establishing transit corridors between southern Europe and the Sahel to attract foreign terrorist fighters. Security operations in Morocco between 2023 and 2025 disrupted the relocation of these fighters to Mali.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2026). Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel. https://saiia.org.za/research/islamic-state-expands-reach-in-sahel/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel. 2026. https://saiia.org.za/research/islamic-state-expands-reach-in-sahel/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel |date=6 May 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/islamic-state-expands-reach-in-sahel/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2026islamic, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Islamic State Expands Reach in Sahel}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/islamic-state-expands-reach-in-sahel/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }