Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV

This policy brief argues for the institutionalisation of futures literacy, foresight, and anticipatory governance within the African mining sector to empower the implementation of the African Mining Vision (AMV). It proposes that the African Mineral Development Centre (AMDC) lead this effort by establishing a dedicated working group, creating a competency framework, and fostering partnerships to build adaptive capacities against global disruptors like the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The African Mineral Development Centre (AMDC) is encouraged to institutionalise futures literacy and anticipatory governance by creating an 'African Futures of Mining' working group. This group would leverage Africa-based experts to enhance the AMDC's functions in capacity building, agenda setting, and coordination as the AMV enters its second decade.
• The document identifies a critical deficit in the mining sector's ability to develop proactive policies, noting that the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a lack of anticipatory capabilities needed to detect emerging disruptors early.
• The brief distinguishes between three components of futures studies: forecasting, which is limited by its focus on short-term linear extrapolation; foresight, which examines novel events and discontinuities over 3 to 30 years; and anticipation, which translates these models into action.
• Foresight is presented as a transformational tool for mining because it employs systems thinking to see interconnectivity, uses scenario planning to co-create shared visions with diverse stakeholders, and can re-imagine depleted reserves and infrastructure to transform mining from a 'sunset to a sunrise industry'.
• To support the African Mining Vision (AMV), the AMDC should develop an anticipatory governance competency framework. This framework would utilize specific methodologies including horizon scanning for 'weak signals', the three horizons methodology for systemic innovation, backcasting, and causal layered analysis.
• The brief recommends that the AMDC build networks with research and training bodies, such as the UNESCO Future Literacy project, to establish 'futures literacy action laboratories' for collective intelligence gathering.
• The document suggests that futures literacy, foresight, and anticipatory governance should be integrated as key themes in the annual Africa Forum on Mining to facilitate the domestication of the AMV at country and regional levels.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV |date=9 June 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020futures, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }