Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV

The document proposes that the African Mineral Development Centre (AMDC) adopt futures literacy and anticipatory governance to move beyond simple forecasting and better implement the African Mining Vision (AMV). It suggests establishing an 'African Futures of Mining' working group, creating action laboratories for collective intelligence, and integrating foresight themes into the annual Africa Forum on Mining to better navigate global uncertainties like the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The document argues that the African mining sector relies too heavily on forecasting, which is limited to short time windows (six months to two years) and assumes linear extrapolation of the present, whereas foresight can address unexpected changes over intermediate windows of three to 30 years.
• The COVID-19 pandemic is cited as evidence of a lack of anticipatory capabilities within African mining, which hindered the early detection of disruptors that significantly impacted the sector.
• Foresight is presented as a transformational tool for mining because it utilizes systems thinking to see interconnectivity, employs scenario planning to co-create shared visions with diverse stakeholders, and can re-imagine depleted reserves and infrastructure into new use cases.
• To institutionalise these capabilities, the author recommends that the AMDC establish an 'African Futures of Mining' working group composed of Africa-based experts to improve coordination, agenda setting, and capacity building.
• The brief suggests the creation of futures literacy action laboratories through partnerships with research and training bodies, such as the UNESCO Future Literacy project on Imagining Africa’s Futures, to foster proactive and participatory intelligence gathering.
• The document proposes an anticipatory governance competency framework for the AMV Action Plan, utilizing specific methodologies including horizon scanning, backcasting, causal layered analysis, and the three horizons methodology.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2020). Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV. 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV |date=9 June 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2020futures, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Futures Literacy in Mining: Empowering the AMV}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-literacy-in-mining-empowering-the-amv/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }