China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa

This research paper examines the diverging demographic trajectories of China and Africa from the early 2020s, analyzing how China's population decline and aging process contrast with Africa's population growth and lower per capita income levels. It suggests that China's long-term planning for demographic change provides a reference point for African economic development and influences how Chinese companies may seek growth opportunities within Africa.

• Starting in the early 2020s, China and Africa are experiencing a demographic divergence: China's population of approximately 1.4 billion is declining, while Africa's population is increasing.
• China and Africa face different economic challenges alongside their demographic shifts; China is an upper-middle income economy managing population aging, whereas most African countries are low or lower-middle income economies where per capita growth is often insufficient to maintain current living standards.
• China has utilized a proactive approach to economic demography since the 1980s, integrating population aging into its long-run development plans. This model, characterized by the challenge of 'getting old before getting rich', serves as a development reference for African economies and informs how Chinese companies position themselves to find growth in Africa.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa |date=28 April 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023chinas, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }