China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa

The document analyzes the demographic divergence between China, whose population is declining and ageing, and Africa, whose population is growing. It highlights that China has integrated demographic change into its long-term development planning since the 1980s, positioning its companies to seek growth in Africa. The author suggests that China's model of managing the interaction between economic and demographic change serves as a useful reference for African economies, which largely remain low or lower-middle income.

• From the early 2020s, China and Africa will experience a demographic divergence where China's population declines while Africa's increases, which will significantly influence the global economy.
• China has utilized a proactive approach to population ageing by incorporating demographic shifts into its long-run development plans since the 1980s, potentially preparing it better than comparable nations and enabling its companies to target growth in Africa.
• China's development model, which considers the interaction between economic and demographic change (specifically the risk of 'getting old before getting rich'), offers a direct economic reference point for African economies and an indirect way to understand China's future growth trajectory.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2023). China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa. 2023. https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa |date=28 April 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2023chinas, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{China’s demographic peak: lessons and prospects for Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/chinas-demographic-peak-lessons-and-prospects-for-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }