Does a Brexit matter for South Africa?

This research paper analyzes the potential economic and trade implications for South Africa if the United Kingdom were to exit the European Union (Brexit). It examines the current scale of bilateral trade and investment, evaluates three potential Brexit scenarios, and discusses the risks to South Africa's financial stability and trade agreements.

• The UK is a critical trade and investment partner for South Africa. In 2015, the UK accounted for 3.7% of South Africa's global trade, but it received approximately 20% of all South African goods destined for Europe. Specifically, the UK received 45% of South Africa's HS71 commodity exports (mostly platinum) and 35% of its agricultural exports, including apples, citrus, and grapes.
• The UK represents a dominant share of both direct and portfolio investments for South Africa. As of December 2014, UK direct investments in South Africa were roughly R730 billion, making up nearly 60% of all EU direct investments in the country. Conversely, over 30% of South Africa's direct investments in the EU (R185 billion) were located in the UK. In 2014, UK portfolio investments in South Africa exceeded R780 billion, representing more than 57% of the EU's total.
• A Brexit would invalidate the commercial aspects of existing EU-negotiated trade agreements for the UK, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC)-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). Depending on the scenario, the UK might join the European Economic Area (EEA) and EFTA—meaning trade would be governed by the 2006 FTA between EFTA and SACU—or it might negotiate a new bilateral FTA with South Africa and SACU members from scratch.
• Brexit poses significant financial risks to South Africa beyond trade, primarily through global financial volatility and restricted access to financing. UniCredit estimates that claims by British lenders on South African entities are 178% of South Africa's foreign currency reserves, making the economy vulnerable to capital constraints in the UK.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2016). Does a Brexit matter for South Africa? https://saiia.org.za/research/does-a-brexit-matter-for-south-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Does a Brexit matter for South Africa? 2016. https://saiia.org.za/research/does-a-brexit-matter-for-south-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Does a Brexit matter for South Africa? |date=21 June 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/does-a-brexit-matter-for-south-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2016does, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Does a Brexit matter for South Africa?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/does-a-brexit-matter-for-south-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }