The Power of Oil: Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State

This report examines the potential political and social impacts of Uganda's transition to an oil-producing state, highlighting risks related to military influence and local community grievances in the Lake Albert region.

• The transition to oil production is expected to transform political relations at local, national, and regional levels. A significant risk is the continued influence of the military on political developments, particularly given a history of military-led coups and recent trends such as arms purchases and the militarisation of the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• Fieldwork in the Lake Albert region indicates that local communities feel economically and politically marginalised. This has led to widespread distrust of the government and private companies, driven by the absence of oil sector legislation, potential environmental damage, and the threat of forced displacement for infrastructure. These factors could lead to destabilising grievance politics if co-operative governance is not established.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2012). The Power of Oil: Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-power-of-oil-charting-ugandas-transition-to-a-petro-state/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Power of Oil: Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State. 2012. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-power-of-oil-charting-ugandas-transition-to-a-petro-state/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Power of Oil: Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State |date=12 March 2012 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-power-of-oil-charting-ugandas-transition-to-a-petro-state/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2012power, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Power of Oil: Charting Uganda’s Transition to a Petro-State}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2012}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-power-of-oil-charting-ugandas-transition-to-a-petro-state/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }