SADC should take a proactive stance on elections in Madagascar

The document assesses the 2013 presidential elections in Madagascar, noting that while initial polls were deemed free and fair by SADC, the AU, and the EU, the risk of political instability remains. It highlights the likelihood of a second round of voting on 20 December 2013 and warns that the use of proxy candidates may not guarantee long-term stability for the fragile economy. The author urges SADC, specifically the Troika and the SADC Mediator, to proactively manage the transition by reinforcing dialogue with Roadmap signatories and ensuring adherence to the Malagasy Electoral Code to prevent a return to political paralysis.

• International observers, including the SADC Electoral Observer Mission, the African Union, the European Union Observer Mission, and the International Organisation of La Francophonie, characterized the October 2013 presidential elections as free, fair, and credible.
• Despite the initial election results, Madagascar remains vulnerable to political instability, particularly because there are no guarantees that the losing candidate will accept the final outcome of the Special Electoral Court.
• The second round of presidential elections, expected on 20 December 2013, is likely to be a contest between proxy candidates Robinson Jean Louis and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, which the author suggests may not secure the long-term prospects of an economy where 90% of the population lives on less than $2 per day.
• To ensure a smooth transition, the document recommends four specific SADC actions: prioritizing dialogue via the Troika chairman, ensuring the Independent National Electoral Commission of the Transition respects the Malagasy Electoral Code, insisting on full implementation of agreements via the SADC Mediator, and convening the International Contact Group on Madagascar (ICG-M) to remove obstacles to the December elections.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2013). SADC should take a proactive stance on elections in Madagascar. https://saiia.org.za/research/sadc-should-take-a-proactive-stance-on-elections-in-madagascar/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. SADC should take a proactive stance on elections in Madagascar. 2013. https://saiia.org.za/research/sadc-should-take-a-proactive-stance-on-elections-in-madagascar/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=SADC should take a proactive stance on elections in Madagascar |date=8 November 2013 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/sadc-should-take-a-proactive-stance-on-elections-in-madagascar/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2013sadc, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{SADC should take a proactive stance on elections in Madagascar}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2013}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/sadc-should-take-a-proactive-stance-on-elections-in-madagascar/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }