Green skills for a just transition: lessons from Brazil and South Africa

This research paper analyzes the role of green skills development and social protection in Brazil and South Africa as they pursue carbon neutrality by 2050. It compares South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JET-P) and its struggle with coal dependency and structural unemployment against Brazil's established renewable energy sector and its challenges with labor market informality. The paper argues that a just transition requires coordinated national strategies, robust investment in vocational training, and the integration of social protection programs with environmental sustainability goals.

• Brazil and South Africa have both committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, a goal supported by their membership in the BRICS bloc.
• South Africa faces significant economic risks from its coal dependency, with the coal value chain employing nearly 93,000 people, primarily in the Mpumalanga province. Additionally, the automotive industry in the Eastern Cape risks 100,000 jobs due to the shift toward electric vehicles, potentially impacting another 500,000 jobs in related transport sectors.
• South Africa's green skills planning is hindered by a lack of national coordination and outdated planning; the Environmental Sector Skills Plan has not been updated since 2010. Furthermore, the R2.7 billion allocated for skills and jobs transition (out of a total R1.4 trillion needed between 2023 and 2027) is considered small in scale and lacks transparency in its allocation process.
• Brazil has successfully created over two million green jobs, with nearly 1.5 million specifically in the renewable energy sector. However, the country struggles with high labor market informality and wage discrepancies, exemplified by waste recyclers in the informal economy earning an average of $230 per month, which is below the $250 minimum wage.
• Brazil's social protection model, specifically the Bolsa Verde program, provides a successful example of linking cash transfers to environmental sustainability by incentivizing beneficiaries to adopt sustainable practices and avoid deforestation.
• The paper recommends four primary actions for a just transition: establishing coordinated national green skills strategies, integrating social protection with sustainability objectives, investing robustly in vocational training and education reform, and enhancing South-South cooperation for knowledge exchange.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2025). Green skills for a just transition: lessons from Brazil and South Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/green-skills-for-a-just-transition-lessons-from-brazil-and-south-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Green skills for a just transition: lessons from Brazil and South Africa. 2025. https://saiia.org.za/research/green-skills-for-a-just-transition-lessons-from-brazil-and-south-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Green skills for a just transition: lessons from Brazil and South Africa |date=1 September 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/green-skills-for-a-just-transition-lessons-from-brazil-and-south-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2025green, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Green skills for a just transition: lessons from Brazil and South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/green-skills-for-a-just-transition-lessons-from-brazil-and-south-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }