Winning the Oil Endgame

The executive summary of 'Winning the Oil Endgame' argues that displacing all oil used in the United States would be more profitable than continuing to purchase it. The proposed roadmap involves doubling oil efficiency—primarily through ultralight vehicle design—developing a domestic biofuels industry, and utilizing natural gas and hydrogen as substitutes. The authors suggest that an investment of $180 billion over a decade could result in an annual gross economic benefit of $130 billion by 2025. To accelerate this transition, the document recommends policies such as 'feebates' for vehicles, scrap-and-replace programs for low-income citizens, and federal loan guarantees for automotive retooling.

• Displacing all oil currently used in the United States is projected to be more profitable than continuing to buy it, with an estimated annual gross economic benefit of $130 billion (or $70 billion net) by 2025.
• The strategy to end oil dependence relies on four integrated steps: doubling oil efficiency, accelerating the adoption of superefficient vehicles and buildings, establishing a major domestic biofuels industry, and substituting oil with natural gas or hydrogen.
• Ultralight vehicle design, utilizing advanced composite or lightweight-steel materials, is identified as the most critical technology for doubling oil efficiency, with the extra cost of the vehicle being recovered through fuel savings in approximately three years.
• A domestic biofuels industry based on biotechnology and cellulose-to-ethanol conversion could provide 25% of U.S. oil needs, potentially creating over 750,000 new jobs and increasing net farm income by tens of billions of dollars annually.
• The document proposes several market-oriented policies to drive the transition, including 'feebates' (fees on inefficient vehicles paired with rebates for efficient ones), a scrap-and-replace program for low-income Americans, and federal loan guarantees to support $70 billion in automotive retooling investments.
• The transition is estimated to require a $180 billion investment over ten years, which would lead to a 25% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions at no additional cost or effort.
• The roadmap envisions a timeline where the U.S. could eliminate oil imports by 2040 and be entirely oil-free by 2050.

APA

Lovins, A. B., Datta, E. K., Bustnes, O.-E., Koomey, J. G., & Glasgow, N. J. (n.d.). Winning the Oil Endgame. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_Winning-The-Oil-Endgame-Executive-Summary-RMI-2004.pdf

Chicago

Lovins, Amory B., E. Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G. Koomey, and Nathan J. Glasgow. Winning the Oil Endgame. RMI, n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_Winning-The-Oil-Endgame-Executive-Summary-RMI-2004.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lovins |first1=Amory B. |last2=Datta |first2=E. Kyle |last3=Bustnes |first3=Odd-Even |last4=Koomey |first4=Jonathan G. |last5=Glasgow |first5=Nathan J. |title=Winning the Oil Endgame |publisher=RMI |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_Winning-The-Oil-Endgame-Executive-Summary-RMI-2004.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovinsndwinning, author = {Lovins, Amory B. and Datta, E. Kyle and Bustnes, Odd-Even and Koomey, Jonathan G. and Glasgow, Nathan J.}, title = {{Winning the Oil Endgame}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_Winning-The-Oil-Endgame-Executive-Summary-RMI-2004.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }