WATER 2010

This 1996 report by the Rocky Mountain Institute uses scenario planning to explore four possible futures for U.S. municipal water systems in 2010. By crossing two critical uncertainties—the federal government's regulatory role and the availability of financial capital—the report outlines scenarios ranging from a highly regulated but underfunded 'Mandate' to a privatized, market-driven 'Off to Market' model. It emphasizes the severe risk of deferred infrastructure maintenance and the tension between increasing environmental standards and the public's reluctance to fund them through taxes or rate increases.

• The report identifies two primary critical uncertainties that shape the future of municipal water systems: the extent of the federal government's role in water management and the state of the financial environment, specifically the availability and cost of capital and public willingness to fund infrastructure.
• In the 'Mandate' scenario, the federal government maintains high standards for water quality and environmental protection, but budgets are severely pinched. This leads to 'unfunded mandates' where tough laws are passed without clear funding, and the public resists rate increases despite demanding high standards.
• The 'Approaching Apocalypse' scenario envisions a reduced federal role combined with a weak financial environment. This results in a cycle of decay where utilities defer maintenance, water-supply contamination increases, and some systems are forced to refuse new hookups.
• The 'Off to Market' scenario describes a future with a minimal federal role and a supportive financial environment. It is characterized by privatization, the use of market mechanisms for water allocation (especially in the arid West), and a shift toward small-scale, modular treatment systems.
• The report highlights significant capital requirements for U.S. water infrastructure, noting an EPA estimate that $137 billion would be needed over 20 years for publicly owned treatment works and related needs, while drinking-water needs are projected between $3.7 and $12.0 billion annually.
• Deferred maintenance is identified as a critical risk; the report notes that municipal water systems spend approximately $1.7 billion annually to replace distribution pipes, but at current rates, a pipe is only replaced once every 200 years.

APA

PINKHAM, R., & CHAPLIN, S. (1996). WATER 2010. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_W96-04_Water2010.pdf

Chicago

PINKHAM, RICHARD, and SCOTT CHAPLIN. WATER 2010. RMI, 1996. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_W96-04_Water2010.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=PINKHAM |first1=RICHARD |last2=CHAPLIN |first2=SCOTT |title=WATER 2010 |publisher=RMI |date=1996 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_W96-04_Water2010.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{pinkham1996water, author = {PINKHAM, RICHARD and CHAPLIN, SCOTT}, title = {{WATER 2010}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {1996}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_W96-04_Water2010.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }