An Energy Resource Investment Strategy for the City of San Francisco

This report by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) presents a scenario analysis to guide the City of San Francisco's energy resource investment strategy through 2012. It evaluates three distinct paths—Central Generation, More Imports, and Distributed Resources—to replace the aging Hunter's Point Power Station while meeting growing electricity demand and reliability requirements.

• The 'Central Generation' (CG) scenario relies on Mirant constructing a 540 MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant at the Potrero facility by 2005, which would allow the closure of the Hunter's Point plant. In this scenario, the new plant dominates both peak demand and total energy supply, but the City remains vulnerable to the potential exercise of market power by the plant's owner.
• The 'More Imports' (MI) scenario focuses on increasing electricity imports by constructing a new 230-kV transmission line from the Jefferson substation in Redwood City to the Martin substation. This would increase import capacity by more than one-third and enable the closure of the Hunter's Point plant after the summer of 2005, though it leaves the City with the lowest in-city generation capacity (35% of peak demand by 2012).
• The 'Distributed Resources' (DR) scenario emphasizes local control and a diverse mix of resources, including two small City-owned CCGT plants (114 MW total), a 50-MW downtown co-generation plant, 50 MW of solar PV, and aggressive energy efficiency. This is the only scenario that significantly reduces CO2 emissions, achieving a reduction of approximately 18% below 2001 levels.
• All three scenarios are capable of maintaining a reserve margin above 200 MW, which satisfies a double-contingency reliability criterion, meaning the system can meet maximum load despite the simultaneous failure of the largest transmission and generation components.
• While all scenarios reduce NOx emissions by 70-80% overall due to the closure of Hunter's Point and upgrades to Potrero, the DR scenario provides the best environmental equity by distributing the remaining low levels of emissions more evenly across the City rather than concentrating them in the southeast.
• The analysis indicates that a 50% increase in natural gas prices (from $3.00 to $4.50/MMBtu) would increase the average cost per kWh by approximately 20% across all three scenarios, as fuel costs are a primary component of total supply costs.
• The 'Central Generation' strategy is identified as the least expensive option, provided that the risks associated with the dominant generator's market power are mitigated.
• The report suggests that targeted Distributed Generation (DG) and Demand-Side Management (DSM) could provide significant cost savings in the distribution system by reducing losses, providing voltage support, and extending equipment life, though these were not fully quantified in the preliminary analysis.

APA

Swisher, J. N., Rábago, K., & Pligavko, A. (2002). An Energy Resource Investment Strategy for the City of San Francisco. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_E02-16_AnalysisForSF.pdf

Chicago

Swisher, Joel N., Karl Rábago, and Andra Pligavko. An Energy Resource Investment Strategy for the City of San Francisco. RMI, 2002. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_E02-16_AnalysisForSF.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swisher |first1=Joel N. |last2=Rábago |first2=Karl |last3=Pligavko |first3=Andra |title=An Energy Resource Investment Strategy for the City of San Francisco |publisher=RMI |date=January 2002 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_E02-16_AnalysisForSF.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swisher2002energy, author = {Swisher, Joel N. and Rábago, Karl and Pligavko, Andra}, title = {{An Energy Resource Investment Strategy for the City of San Francisco}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2002}, month = jan, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_E02-16_AnalysisForSF.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }