Profitable solutions for oil, climate, and proliferation

This research paper by Amory B. Lovins argues that climate change, oil dependence, and nuclear proliferation can be addressed through profitable, market-driven energy efficiency and decentralized renewable energy. The author contends that saving fuel is cheaper than buying it, and that transitioning away from oil and nuclear power is economically advantageous and enhances global security.

• Climate protection is profitable rather than costly because the cost of saving fuel is lower than the cost of purchasing it. Some companies are already generating billions in profit by reducing carbon emissions or intensity at annual rates of 5–8%.
• Stabilizing carbon emissions requires increasing energy productivity (GDP per GJ) by 2% per year, while stabilizing the climate requires approximately 3% per year. The U.S. achieved 4% in 2006, and China has seen rates of nearly 8% per year between 1997 and 2001.
• The U.S. could eliminate its oil use by the 2040s by doubling oil efficiency (at an average cost of $12/bbl) and substituting saved natural gas and advanced biofuels (averaging $18/bbl). The average cost to completely exit oil is approximately $15/bbl, which is one-fifth of recent prices.
• Decentralized 'micropower'—consisting of carbon-free renewables and low-carbon combined-heat-and-power—provided one-sixth of global electricity and one-third of new electricity in 2005. In 2005, micropower added 11 times the capacity and four times the electricity of nuclear power globally.
• The transition away from nuclear power, driven by market forces, could reduce nuclear proliferation by removing the civilian cover for the trade of materials used in nuclear weapons, making such transactions more conspicuous and military-focused.
• A 2006 McKinsey study indicated that abating 46% of business-as-usual 2030 global emissions would cost an average of only €2 per tonne of CO2-equivalent, suggesting that an efficient carbon market would operate at very low or even negative prices.

APA

LOVINS, A. B. (2007). Profitable solutions for oil, climate, and proliferation. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_C07-08_ProfitableSolutions.pdf

Chicago

LOVINS, AMORY B. Profitable solutions for oil, climate, and proliferation. RMI, 2007. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_C07-08_ProfitableSolutions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=LOVINS |first1=AMORY B. |title=Profitable solutions for oil, climate, and proliferation |publisher=RMI |date=27 August 2007 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_C07-08_ProfitableSolutions.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovins2007profitable, author = {LOVINS, AMORY B.}, title = {{Profitable solutions for oil, climate, and proliferation}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2007}, month = aug, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2017/05/RMI_Document_Repository_Public-Reprts_C07-08_ProfitableSolutions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }