Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America

This technical supplement describes the methodology used by RMI to analyze how state-level land use reform in the United States could reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2033. The analysis compares a 'business as usual' scenario against a 'low VMT' scenario where new housing is concentrated in dense, walkable, and transit-oriented areas.

• The analysis projects that if U.S. states eliminate existing housing shortages and accommodate population growth, more than 13 million new housing units will be added nationally by 2033, with some states increasing their housing stock by up to 25%.
• To model a 'low VMT' scenario, the study assumes that 90% of new housing is built in areas corresponding to the 90th percentile lowest VMT per capita already achievable within each respective state, while the remaining 10% follows the current state average.
• Indirect emissions sources—including building energy use, embodied carbon in construction, and the loss of natural land carbon sinks—can almost double the total GHG impact of car-oriented communities compared to direct tailpipe emissions alone.
• The study identifies specific GHG savings contributors: building energy (4% to ~10%), housing embodied carbon (3%), and the loss of land sinks (at least 7%), relative to national direct tailpipe emissions of 1,100 million tons CO2e/year.
• The analysis excludes Alaska due to the unavailability of VMT data.
• For states committed to the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) standard—including California, Vermont, New York, Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Maryland—the electric vehicle (EV) stock percentage is projected to reach 33% by 2033.

APA

RMI (n.d.). Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf

Chicago

RMI. Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America. n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmindwhy, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }