Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America

The document outlines a methodology for estimating GHG emissions reductions achievable through land use reform in the US. It projects that over 13 million new housing units will be needed by 2033 to address population growth and existing shortages. By comparing a 'business as usual' scenario with a 'low VMT' scenario—where 90% of new housing is placed in the 90th percentile lowest VMT areas of each state—the analysis calculates potential savings in direct tailpipe emissions, vehicle lifecycle emissions, and indirect emissions from building energy, embodied carbon, and the loss of natural land carbon sinks.

• The analysis projects that more than 13 million new housing units will be added nationally by 2033 if states eliminate existing housing shortages and accommodate projected population growth.
• The 'low VMT' scenario assumes that 90% of new housing is associated with the 90th percentile lowest VMT per capita already achievable in each state, while the remaining 10% corresponds to the current state average.
• Indirect emissions sources—including building energy, embodied carbon, and the loss of land sinks—can almost double the total GHG impact of car-oriented communities compared to direct tailpipe emissions alone.
• The analysis identifies specific indirect GHG contributors: building energy (4% to ~10%), housing embodied carbon (3%), and the loss of natural land sinks (at least 7%) relative to national direct tailpipe emissions of 1,100 million tons CO2e/year.
• For states committed to the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) standard—including California, Vermont, New York, Washington, Oregon, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Maryland—the electric vehicle (EV) stock percentage is projected to reach 33% by 2033.
• Based on the provided data table, Texas (TX) has the highest potential gross rough lifecycle GHG savings at 12.4 MMT CO2e/Year, followed by California (CA) at 8.3 MMT CO2e/Year and Florida (FL) at 7.0 MMT CO2e/Year.

APA

RMI (n.d.). Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf

Chicago

RMI. Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America. n.d. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmindwhy, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Why State Land Use Reform Should Be a Priority Climate Lever for America}}, institution = {RMI}, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2024/02/land_use_reform_methodology.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }