Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help

US utilities face a projected 270 GW power gap due to rising demand from AI and electrification and the retirement of coal plants. While utilities are increasingly relying on gas-fired capacity, major turbine manufacturers (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power) report delivery timelines extending to 2028-2030 and record backlogs. This supply crunch, combined with rising procurement costs—exemplified by a $900 million cost increase for Duke Indiana's Cayuga plant—creates reliability risks. The report suggests alternatives such as energy efficiency, virtual power plants, grid-enhancing technologies, and clean repowering to meet near-term load growth.

• The United States faces a projected 270 GW power gap driven by a 150 GW increase in national peak demand over the next decade and the expected retirement of over 120 GW of existing power generation, primarily mid-20th century coal plants.
• Major gas turbine manufacturers are experiencing significant delivery delays and backlogs. Mitsubishi Power indicates deliveries for current orders will not occur until 2028–2030, GE Vernova states new turbines will not be available until late 2028 at the earliest, and Siemens Energy reports a record backlog of €131 billion (US$148 billion).
• US utilities are increasing their reliance on gas-fired capacity despite supply constraints. Analysis of 104 utilities showed that planned gas turbine deployments for 2030 doubled from just under 25 GW at the end of 2021 to over 45 GW by the end of 2024.
• Procurement costs for gas plants are rising significantly above planning estimates. For example, Duke Indiana's estimated procurement cost for the Cayuga combined-cycle plant is $2,340 per kilowatt, which is 36 percent higher than its previous resource plan, resulting in a $900 million increase.
• To mitigate reliability risks and cost shocks, the report identifies several ready-to-deploy alternatives that could meet nearly all projected near-term load growth, including energy efficiency, virtual power plants (VPPs), grid-enhancing technologies, clean repowering, and hybrid "power couples" at existing fossil generator interconnection points.

APA

RMI (2025). Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help. https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/

Chicago

RMI. Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help. 2025. https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help |date=18 June 2025 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2025gas, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }