Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help

RMI reports that US utilities face a projected 270 GW gap in electricity capacity due to rising demand from AI and electrification and the retirement of coal plants. While utilities are increasingly relying on gas-fired power plants, severe supply chain constraints among major turbine manufacturers—with delivery dates extending to 2030—and rising procurement costs threaten grid reliability and affordability. RMI suggests that alternative solutions such as energy efficiency, virtual power plants, and grid-enhancing technologies can meet nearly all projected near-term load growth.

• The United States faces a projected 270 GW gap in electricity capacity. This is driven by a projected 150 GW increase in national peak demand over the next decade—approximately 18 percent growth—and the expected retirement of over 120 GW of existing power generation, representing more than 10 percent of the total US fleet.
• Major gas turbine manufacturers are experiencing significant delivery delays and backlogs. Mitsubishi Power indicates that turbines ordered currently will not be delivered until 2028–2030, GE Vernova states new turbines will not be available until at least late 2028, and Siemens Energy reports a record backlog of €131 billion (approximately US$148 billion).
• US utilities are increasing their planned gas-fired capacity despite supply constraints. Analysis of 104 utilities (representing over half of US electricity demand) shows that planned gas turbine deployments for 2030 rose from just under 25 GW at the end of 2021 to over 45 GW by the end of 2024.
• Procurement costs for gas plants are rising significantly above planning estimates. For example, Duke Indiana's estimated procurement cost for the Cayuga combined-cycle plant is $2,340 per kilowatt, which is 36 percent higher than the previous year's resource plan, resulting in a $900 million increase for the 1,476 MW plant.
• Alternative near-term solutions could meet nearly all projected load growth and reduce reliance on gas turbines. These include energy efficiency, virtual power plants (VPPs), grid-enhancing technologies, clean repowering, and hybrid "power couples" located at existing fossil generator points of interconnection.

APA

RMI (2025). Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help. https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/

Chicago

RMI. Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help. 2025. https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help |date=18 June 2025 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2025gas, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Gas Turbine Supply Constraints Threaten Grid Reliability; More Affordable Near-Term Solutions Can Help}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/gas-turbine-supply-constraints-threaten-grid-reliability-more-affordable-near-term-solutions-can-help/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }