Reconsidering Planned Generation

This policy brief by RMI argues that many planned grid-connected coal power plants, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), should be reconsidered in favor of cleaner, more affordable alternatives like solar paired with battery energy storage systems (BESS). The document provides a five-indicator framework to help decision-makers identify plants that are likely to become uneconomic liabilities due to rapid technological cost declines and evolving grid needs.

• As of October 2025, there are over 640 GW of grid-connected coal plants under development globally, with the vast majority (630 GW or over 98%) planned in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
• A significant portion of the current coal pipeline consists of old projects that were revived during recent crises. Approximately 28% (over 170 GW) of planned coal capacity in LMICs was first conceived before 2016, and 100 GW of these projects were previously shelved or canceled.
• RMI proposes a five-indicator framework to identify coal plants ripe for reconsideration: the source of fuel, the date of original conception, the level of sunk costs and contractual obligations, the intended grid role (e.g., baseload vs. mid-merit), and how grid needs have evolved since planning began.
• Planned coal plants risk becoming long-term financial burdens because clean energy costs are falling rapidly. By 2040, some coal capacity with 30+ years of remaining life could have a total cost of power up to double that of a solar and eight-hour BESS alternative.
• The document identifies several drivers for the continued selection of coal in power planning, including perceived energy security for fuel importers, requirements for district and industrial heat (approximately 110 GW of planned LMIC coal capacity is for combined heat and power), and legacy planning assumptions regarding the need for baseload generation.
• RMI suggests a three-phase reevaluation process, starting with a preliminary framework placement and a high-level levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assessment to determine if a more detailed prefeasibility study is warranted.

APA

RMI (2026). Reconsidering Planned Generation. https://rmi.org/resources/reconsidering-planned-generation-report/

Chicago

RMI. Reconsidering Planned Generation. 2026. https://rmi.org/resources/reconsidering-planned-generation-report/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Reconsidering Planned Generation |date=4 June 2026 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/reconsidering-planned-generation-report/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2026reconsidering, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Reconsidering Planned Generation}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/reconsidering-planned-generation-report/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }