IS TOTALENERGIES ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C?

The document argues that TotalEnergies is not on track for the 1.5°C climate goal, as its cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are projected to exceed the compatible carbon budget by at least 31.8% by 2050. It finds that the company's strategy remains driven by oil and gas expansion, with production levels expected to increase by 18.4% by 2030 compared to 2020. The analysis highlights an unsustainable reliance on carbon offsets and a CAPEX allocation that continues to favor fossil fuels over renewables.

• TotalEnergies is projected to exceed its 1.5°C compatible carbon budget by at least 31.8% by 2050, even under conservative assumptions that the company meets its emissions targets and reduces production in line with the IEA's Net Zero-based 1.5°C scenario.
• The company is expected to overshoot its allocated carbon budget as early as 2035 due to planned increases in production levels until at least 2024. If production increases until 2030 as announced, this overshoot will occur even sooner.
• TotalEnergies' carbon intensity is projected to be 30.4% higher on average than the maximum levels allowed by the 1.5°C reference scenario between 2021 and 2035.
• The company's production strategy is oil and gas-driven; hydrocarbon production is calculated to increase by 18.4% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels, and fossil gas production specifically is expected to rise by 35.5% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
• TotalEnergies is identified as the top European oil and gas developer and the 7th largest globally according to the Global Oil and Gas Exit List (GOGEL). The company continues to invest in exploration, spending an average of $837 million per year between 2019 and 2021.
• The company's investment strategy remains focused on fossil fuels; by 2025, approximately 70% or more of its CAPEX will still be directed toward oil and gas, while less than 25% will be dedicated to renewables.
• TotalEnergies relies heavily on offsets to meet its targets, planning to offset 15 MtCO2e per annum from 2030. By 2050, offsets and CCUS are intended to cover 18.6% of the absolute emissions reductions required to meet its targets.
• The company has approved a 10 billion USD investment for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) across Uganda and Tanzania, which could emit up to 33 million tons of CO2 per year.

APA

Her, H., & Delaporte, L.-M. (2022). IS TOTALENERGIES ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? Reclaim Finance. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TotalEnergies-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf

Chicago

Her, Henri, and Louis-Maxence Delaporte. IS TOTALENERGIES ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? Reclaim Finance, 2022. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TotalEnergies-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Her |first1=Henri |last2=Delaporte |first2=Louis-Maxence |title=IS TOTALENERGIES ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C? |publisher=Reclaim Finance |date=May 2022 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TotalEnergies-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{her2022totalenergies, author = {Her, Henri and Delaporte, Louis-Maxence}, title = {{IS TOTALENERGIES ON TRACK FOR 1.5°C?}}, institution = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/TotalEnergies-company-briefing-March-2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }