NGFS : réviser les scénarios pour éviter l'inaction climatique

Reclaim Finance and Oil Change International critique the NGFS's initial climate scenarios for focusing on 2°C targets rather than 1.5°C and for relying on unrealistic levels of carbon capture. The authors contend that these choices create a bias in favor of fossil fuels, with some scenarios allowing coal use beyond 2050 and only modest reductions in fossil fuel investments. They call for a revised framework that centers a 1.5°C scenario and encourages financial regulators to end support for the fossil fuel sector.

• The NGFS scenarios prioritize 2°C targets over 1.5°C, labeling the latter as 'alternative' and making them barely visible, which minimizes the critical difference between these two warming levels despite IPCC warnings.
• The scenarios rely heavily on carbon capture technologies that are unlikely to be deployed at scale and may raise human rights and sustainability concerns; even 'limited' carbon capture scenarios exceed current scientific estimates for sustainable mitigation.
• The NGFS framework exhibits a bias toward fossil fuels; in one reference scenario, oil and gas production are only 36% and 23% lower than 'business as usual' respectively, coal is burned past 2050, and cumulative fossil fuel investments from 2016 to 2050 decrease by only 24%.

APA

admin (2021). NGFS : réviser les scénarios pour éviter l'inaction climatique. Reclaim Finance. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/2021/02/15/ngfs-reviser-scenarios-eviter-linaction-climatique/

Chicago

admin. NGFS : réviser les scénarios pour éviter l'inaction climatique. Reclaim Finance, 2021. https://reclaimfinance.org/site/2021/02/15/ngfs-reviser-scenarios-eviter-linaction-climatique/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=admin |title=NGFS : réviser les scénarios pour éviter l'inaction climatique |publisher=Reclaim Finance |date=15 February 2021 |url=https://reclaimfinance.org/site/2021/02/15/ngfs-reviser-scenarios-eviter-linaction-climatique/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{admin2021ngfs, author = {admin}, title = {{NGFS : réviser les scénarios pour éviter l'inaction climatique}}, publisher = {Reclaim Finance}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://reclaimfinance.org/site/2021/02/15/ngfs-reviser-scenarios-eviter-linaction-climatique/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }