CARLYLE’S UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS & THE ENERGY TRANSITION

The report finds that Carlyle and NGP have significant exposure to transition risk, with a large portion of their planned capital expenditure for upstream oil and gas projects incompatible with the Paris Agreement's goals. It argues that Carlyle's 'net zero' target is insufficient because it excludes Scope 3 emissions and minority investments, and warns that continuing to expand fossil fuel production risks creating stranded assets as global demand shifts toward renewables.

• Carlyle's portfolio is more exposed to transition risk than nearly all major oil companies, with a significant amount of planned capital expenditure only viable in a higher temperature (2.5°C) scenario.
• NGP Energy Capital's transition risk profile is similarly poor, with less than 30% of its portfolio companies' potential project options fitting within a 1.65°C low-carbon world.
• Neither Carlyle nor NGP have investments fully aligned with the Paris Agreement; most analyzed portfolio companies would need to reduce oil and gas production to align with a Net Zero Emissions (1.5°C) scenario, yet their capex plans indicate continued expansion.
• Carlyle's 'net zero' target is not aligned with the Paris Agreement because it excludes minority investments and does not account for Scope 3 emissions, which represent 85% of emissions for oil and gas production.
• Between Carlyle and NGP, backed companies have $127 billion in planned capital expenditure that may not be viable in the lowest-carbon world, with $48 billion only viable in high-fossil-demand scenarios.

APA

Private Equity Climate Risks (2022). CARLYLE’S UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS & THE ENERGY TRANSITION. https://www.peclimaterisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CTI_Report_CarlylesUpstream_EnergyInvestments_Dec2022.pdf

Chicago

Private Equity Climate Risks. CARLYLE’S UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS & THE ENERGY TRANSITION. 2022. https://www.peclimaterisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CTI_Report_CarlylesUpstream_EnergyInvestments_Dec2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Private Equity Climate Risks |title=CARLYLE’S UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS & THE ENERGY TRANSITION |date=December 2022 |url=https://www.peclimaterisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CTI_Report_CarlylesUpstream_EnergyInvestments_Dec2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{privateequityclimaterisks2022carlyles, author = {{Private Equity Climate Risks}}, title = {{CARLYLE’S UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS \& THE ENERGY TRANSITION}}, institution = {Private Equity Climate Risks}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://www.peclimaterisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CTI_Report_CarlylesUpstream_EnergyInvestments_Dec2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }