Sequencing climate change mitigation targets and policies

This research paper by the NewClimate Institute examines the relationship between Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) ambition and the adoption of national climate policies, arguing that increasing targets without corresponding policy implementation creates a credibility gap and undermines the Paris Agreement.

• Analysis of 25 countries reveals that while 18 are projected to meet original targets, only 11 are projected to meet updated NDCs, largely because updated NDCs represent a progression in ambition. Furthermore, 11 countries were projected to meet their updated NDCs at the time of submission, yet both original and updated targets still result in emissions exceeding current policy projections for 2030.
• In nearly 25% of the analyzed countries, the raising of ambition is not accompanied by sufficient policy adoption. Some nations have failed to implement policies to meet original NDCs established over seven years ago, which increases the gap between international commitments and national action.
• Countries facing specific national constraints, particularly those that produce oil and gas or rely on fossil fuels for economic growth, are less likely to successfully sequence policy adoption with ambition raising, often submitting NDCs that exceed current policies or failing to raise ambition entirely.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2023). Sequencing climate change mitigation targets and policies. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/sequencing-climate-change-mitigation-targets-and-policies

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Sequencing climate change mitigation targets and policies. 2023. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/sequencing-climate-change-mitigation-targets-and-policies.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Sequencing climate change mitigation targets and policies |date=1 November 2023 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/sequencing-climate-change-mitigation-targets-and-policies |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2023sequencing, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Sequencing climate change mitigation targets and policies}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/sequencing-climate-change-mitigation-targets-and-policies}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }