Using Climate Risk Assessment to Measure Adaptation Success at the National Level

The report explores how repeating national climate risk assessments (CRAs) can support the monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) of national adaptation efforts. While CRAs are traditionally used to inform planning, the author argues they can also track changes in vulnerability over time to assess adaptation success. Analysis of 12 countries reveals a shift toward viewing CRAs as continuous learning processes rather than static reports, with a growing consensus that updates should occur roughly every five years to align with policy cycles. However, the report finds that fully standardized approaches to repeating CRAs are often impractical due to evolving science and shifting policy priorities. Instead, it suggests a flexible approach where only specific components are standardized. Early adopters like Germany and the United Kingdom have begun using CRAs to evaluate NAP effectiveness, though they face methodological challenges, including the time lag between implementing measures and seeing tangible risk reductions.

• Repeating national CRAs is primarily driven by the need to update evidence bases to reflect emerging science and new types of risks, such as "cascading" or "systemic" risks that interact across sectors and regions.
• There is an emerging consensus that national CRAs should be updated approximately every five years to maintain alignment with national adaptation policy cycles and global climate commitments.
• National CRAs are evolving from isolated, one-time reports into iterative, continuous learning processes that inform the entire NAP cycle from planning through to implementation and evaluation.
• A fully standardized approach to repeating CRAs is often unfeasible or counterproductive because it can hinder the integration of new knowledge, updated socio-economic scenarios, or shifting government priorities.
• Some countries, specifically Germany and the United Kingdom, have begun using periodic CRAs to evaluate whether vulnerability is reducing at a national level, though this remains methodologically difficult.
• Measuring adaptation success via CRAs is hindered by the long timeframes required for measures to show results, a lack of impact assessments, and indicator systems that track policy targets rather than tangible risk reductions.
• There is a noted gap in coherence between some countries' CRAs and their NAP documents, where identified urgent risks are not always addressed by corresponding actions in the adaptation plan.

APA

Dekens, J. (2023). Using Climate Risk Assessment to Measure Adaptation Success at the National Level. NAP Global Network. https://napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/napgn-en-2023-climate-risk-assessment-measure-adaptation-success.pdf

Chicago

Dekens, Julie. Using Climate Risk Assessment to Measure Adaptation Success at the National Level. NAP Global Network, 2023. https://napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/napgn-en-2023-climate-risk-assessment-measure-adaptation-success.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dekens |first1=Julie |title=Using Climate Risk Assessment to Measure Adaptation Success at the National Level |publisher=NAP Global Network |date=July 2023 |url=https://napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/napgn-en-2023-climate-risk-assessment-measure-adaptation-success.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dekens2023using, author = {Dekens, Julie}, title = {{Using Climate Risk Assessment to Measure Adaptation Success at the National Level}}, institution = {NAP Global Network}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://napglobalnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/napgn-en-2023-climate-risk-assessment-measure-adaptation-success.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }