From Posts to Polls: AfD Social Media Activity in east Germany and the Growing Dilemma of Coalition Politics

The report examines the social media strategy of the AfD in eastern Germany, finding that migration, economic grievances, and opposition to Ukraine support are the primary drivers of engagement. It highlights that the AfD views the CDU as its primary political competitor and warns that the party's growth may lead to unstable government coalitions that undermine democratic trust.

• The analysis of 117 AfD Facebook pages, which collectively had 850,705 followers, revealed that opposition to migration was the most prominent theme. These posts frequently linked migrants to high crime rates and the decline of the welfare state, often calling for the deportation of criminals to countries such as Afghanistan and Syria.
• Economic concerns and foreign policy regarding Russia were also major themes. The AfD framed economic decline as a result of 'ideological' projects like climate policy and support for Ukraine, while portraying itself as the only party committed to 'peace' with Russia.
• The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is identified as the AfD's primary political target and competitor in eastern Germany, receiving more criticism in popular posts (36%) than the Green Party (19%) or the SPD (16%).
• The post with the highest overall engagement did not focus on party politics but rather on an anti-trans campaign targeting Olympic gold medalist Imane Khelif, receiving 81,145 interactions.
• The report warns that the projected electoral success of the AfD and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) may force the creation of 'unsustainable' multi-party coalitions to maintain the 'firewall' against the far-right, potentially undermining public trust in the parliamentary system.
• The AfD utilizes narratives of 'state repression' to frame German institutions as authoritarian, specifically criticizing the ban of Compact magazine and the surveillance of the party by domestic intelligence services.

APA

Guhl, J. (2024). From Posts to Polls: AfD Social Media Activity in east Germany and the Growing Dilemma of Coalition Politics. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AfD-State-Elections-Campaign-on-Social-Media-3-4-2.pdf

Chicago

Guhl, Jakob. From Posts to Polls: AfD Social Media Activity in east Germany and the Growing Dilemma of Coalition Politics. Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AfD-State-Elections-Campaign-on-Social-Media-3-4-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Guhl |first1=Jakob |title=From Posts to Polls: AfD Social Media Activity in east Germany and the Growing Dilemma of Coalition Politics |publisher=Institute for Strategic Dialogue |date=2024 |url=https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AfD-State-Elections-Campaign-on-Social-Media-3-4-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{guhl2024from, author = {Guhl, Jakob}, title = {{From Posts to Polls: AfD Social Media Activity in east Germany and the Growing Dilemma of Coalition Politics}}, institution = {Institute for Strategic Dialogue}, year = {2024}, url = {https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/AfD-State-Elections-Campaign-on-Social-Media-3-4-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }