From Bucharest to Prague: The spread of the ‘Romanian Scenario’ conspiracy theory in Czechia’s elections

The report analyzes how the 'Romanian scenario'—a conspiracy theory alleging that the EU, intelligence services, and courts can rig elections—was used by far-right and far-left political actors, alternative media, and Russian-affiliated channels to undermine trust in Czechia's 2025 parliamentary elections. The narrative evolved from the actual annulment of a Romanian election round in December 2024 into a broader claim of institutional manipulation, often linking the EU's Rapid Response System (RRS) to 'censorship'. The study identifies a transnational pattern, noting similar narratives in Poland and Croatia, and highlights the role of pro-Kremlin propaganda in amplifying these claims to foster democratic distrust.

• The 'Romanian scenario' is a conspiracy theory that evolved from the December 2024 annulment of the first round of Romania's presidential election into a broader claim that the EU, Czech intelligence, and government planned to manipulate the 2025 Czech elections.
• The narrative was propagated by a diverse group of actors, including far-right (SPD) and far-left (Stačilo!) parties, former President Miloš Zeman, and Russian-affiliated media such as the Telegram channel neČT24, which is considered a successor to Sputnik.
• Specific institutional mechanisms and events were reframed as evidence of the 'Romanian scenario', including the EU's Rapid Response System (RRS), which was portrayed as a 'censorship tool', and a Constitutional Court decision regarding party coalitions.
• The 'Romanian scenario' exhibits transnational characteristics, appearing in Russian-language Telegram channels and influencing election narratives in Poland (May 2025) and Croatia (December 2024).
• Attempts by the Czech intelligence service and the Centre for Research of Online Risks to identify coordinated TikTok networks interfering in the election were reframed by conspiracy theorists as 'false flag' operations to justify annulling results.

APA

Kuchta, R., & Syrovátka, J. (2026). From Bucharest to Prague: The spread of the ‘Romanian Scenario’ conspiracy theory in Czechia’s elections. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/from-bucharest-to-prague-the-spread-of-the-romanian-scenario-conspiracy-theory-in-czechias-elections/

Chicago

Kuchta, Richard, and Jonáš Syrovátka. From Bucharest to Prague: The spread of the ‘Romanian Scenario’ conspiracy theory in Czechia’s elections. Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2026. https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/from-bucharest-to-prague-the-spread-of-the-romanian-scenario-conspiracy-theory-in-czechias-elections/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kuchta |first1=Richard |last2=Syrovátka |first2=Jonáš |title=From Bucharest to Prague: The spread of the ‘Romanian Scenario’ conspiracy theory in Czechia’s elections |publisher=Institute for Strategic Dialogue |date=2 February 2026 |url=https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/from-bucharest-to-prague-the-spread-of-the-romanian-scenario-conspiracy-theory-in-czechias-elections/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kuchta2026from, author = {Kuchta, Richard and Syrovátka, Jonáš}, title = {{From Bucharest to Prague: The spread of the ‘Romanian Scenario’ conspiracy theory in Czechia’s elections}}, institution = {Institute for Strategic Dialogue}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/from-bucharest-to-prague-the-spread-of-the-romanian-scenario-conspiracy-theory-in-czechias-elections/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }