The prospect of post-election conspiracy-motivated violence

The document warns that figures like Michael Flynn and Ivan Raiklin are promoting conspiracy theories and fantasies of 'retribution' against political enemies, which may drive some supporters to commit violent acts if the government does not enact such measures following an election loss. Social media analysis of X users following these figures shows a steady increase in posts containing violent and revenge-oriented keywords, spiking after the July 2024 assassination attempt on Trump. The briefing notes that while QAnon followers were often told to 'trust the plan,' the current rhetoric may leave supporters feeling obligated to take matters into their own hands.

• Prominent supporters of Donald Trump, specifically retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn and activist Ivan Raiklin, are using extreme rhetoric to promote the idea of retributive violence against perceived political enemies and the 'deep state'. Raiklin has created a target list of journalists, politicians, and public officials, and has expressed a desire to kill Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg via drone strike.
• Analysis of X (formerly Twitter) data indicates that followers of Flynn and Raiklin are increasingly engaging with violent rhetoric. On average, accounts following these figures produced over 720,000 posts per month containing keywords associated with retributive violence and revenge fantasies, with this volume exceeding one million posts per month since July 2024.
• The document argues that if Donald Trump loses the election, the current rhetoric may create a different psychological driver for violence than seen with QAnon. While QAnon adherents were told to 'trust the plan' and wait for military action, current messages may lead supporters to believe they must personally carry out the violence they believe is imminent against their enemies.
• The FBI and DHS have previously identified conspiracy-driven extremist movements as unique risks to public safety. The FBI specifically noted that 'anti-government, identity based, and fringe' theories can legitimize violent action and drive individuals to commit criminal acts, including murders and attacks on government facilities.

APA

Institute for Strategic Dialogue (2024). The prospect of post-election conspiracy-motivated violence. https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/the-prospect-of-post-election-conspiracy-motivated-violence-2/

Chicago

Institute for Strategic Dialogue. The prospect of post-election conspiracy-motivated violence. 2024. https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/the-prospect-of-post-election-conspiracy-motivated-violence-2/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Strategic Dialogue |title=The prospect of post-election conspiracy-motivated violence |date=1 November 2024 |url=https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/the-prospect-of-post-election-conspiracy-motivated-violence-2/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforstrategicdialogue2024prospect, author = {{Institute for Strategic Dialogue}}, title = {{The prospect of post-election conspiracy-motivated violence}}, institution = {Institute for Strategic Dialogue}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://www.isdglobal.org/digital-dispatch/the-prospect-of-post-election-conspiracy-motivated-violence-2/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }