Executive Summary | In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada

The report concludes that Alberta's oil sector faces a bleak long-term outlook due to technological shifts, climate action, and market volatility. Modelling indicates that price volatility could cause significant losses in GDP and employment. The authors recommend that the government pivot industrial policy away from combustible hydrocarbons toward economic diversification to manage the transition for workers and communities.

• The long-term market outlook for Alberta's oil sector is bleak, with a projected long-term decline by the end of the decade driven by geopolitics, market forces, climate action, and technological change. Consequently, the sector's future contribution to Alberta's prosperity will be significantly lower than its historical role.
• Several critical determinants are expected to reduce future oil demand and challenge the sector's viability. These include the rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), as road transport represents 44% of global crude oil demand, and global government climate actions to meet Paris Agreement targets. Additionally, Canadian upstream production remains over 50% more GHG intense than the U.S. average and more than three times as high as Saudi Arabia's.
• The oil sector faces significant financial and operational headwinds, including high costs for greenfield mining operations and declining investment since 2014. Capital access is further constrained by divestment from sovereign wealth and pension funds, as well as a 2019 Supreme Court of Canada ruling (Redwater) that prioritizes environmental obligations over debt repayment, increasing costs for creditors.
• Modelling of low oil prices (averaging USD 55/bbl Brent out to 2050) suggests an average annual decrease of CAD 4.4 billion in oil and gas GDP, a loss of 6,300 FTE jobs per year, and a decrease in provincial tax revenues of just under CAD 1 billion per year.
• Price volatility has a more severe economic impact than consistently low prices. In a 'Shocks Scenario', the average annual decrease in oil and gas GDP is CAD 24.3 billion, with an average loss of 24,300 FTE jobs per year and a 43% drop in oil sands royalties.
• The report recommends that governments stop using industrial policy to support oil for combustion and instead prioritize economic diversification. It emphasizes that transitions for workers and communities must be managed and accelerated immediately, as successful diversification typically takes decades.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (n.d.). Executive Summary | In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Executive Summary | In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada. n.d. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Executive Summary | In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopmentndexecutive, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Executive Summary | In Search of Prosperity: The role of oil in the future of Alberta and Canada}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }