In Search of Prosperity

The report concludes that Alberta's oil sector faces a bleak long-term outlook due to technological shifts, climate action, and market volatility. It argues that the sector will become a diminishing contributor to provincial prosperity, making economic diversification imperative. Modelling shows that price volatility has a more severe negative impact on GDP, employment, and royalties than consistently low prices. The authors recommend that oil for combustion should not be a target of industrial policy and that the transition for workers and communities must be managed immediately.

• Alberta's oil sector is projected to experience a long-term decline by the end of the 2020s, driven by geopolitics, market forces, climate action, and technological change, meaning it will not contribute to future prosperity as it did previously.
• The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is identified as the most significant factor influencing future oil demand, as road transport represents 44% of global crude oil demand.
• Canadian oil production is characterized by high GHG intensity, remaining more than 50% higher than the U.S. average and over three times higher than Saudi Arabia's average.
• Modelling a low-oil-price scenario (average USD 55/bbl Brent out to 2050) suggests an average annual decrease of CAD 4.4 billion in oil and gas GDP, a loss of 6,300 FTE jobs, and a drop in oil sands royalties by just under CAD 2 billion per year.
• Price volatility is found to be more economically damaging than low prices; a 'Shocks Scenario' predicts an average annual GDP decrease of CAD 24.3 billion and a 43% drop in oil sands royalties.
• The report recommends that governments avoid using industrial policy to support oil for combustion and instead invest in diversifying the economy to protect workers and communities.

APA

Cosbey, A., Sawyer, D., & Stiebert, S. (2021). In Search of Prosperity. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf

Chicago

Cosbey, Aaron, Dave Sawyer, and Seton Stiebert. In Search of Prosperity. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2021. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cosbey |first1=Aaron |last2=Sawyer |first2=Dave |last3=Stiebert |first3=Seton |title=In Search of Prosperity |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2021 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cosbey2021search, author = {Cosbey, Aaron and Sawyer, Dave and Stiebert, Seton}, title = {{In Search of Prosperity}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-05/search-prosperity-oil-alberta-canada-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }