Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Contournement de Rabat, Morocco: A focus on road infrastructure

This report presents a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment of the Contournement de Rabat (Rabat bypass) road project in Morocco. Using system dynamics and project finance modelling, the study evaluates the financial viability of the 41.1 km toll road across six risk scenarios and incorporates the valuation of four key externalities: discretionary spending from labour income, social cost of carbon, value of time saved, and the cost of accidents.

• The Contournement de Rabat project is not financially viable when relying solely on its own revenues under any of the six risk scenarios modelled. Financial indicators show a negative net present value (NPV), an insufficient internal rate of return (IRR), and credit ratios (DSCR and LLCR) that fall below the typical requirements of lenders.
• Externalities have a material impact on the project's financial and economic valuation, representing between 13 per cent and 19 per cent of capital and operating and management (O&M) costs. Including these externalities significantly improves key financial indicators compared to a baseline scenario that excludes them.
• Reducing maintenance expenditure (Scenario 2) leads to a higher number of accidents, creating economic and social costs that far outweigh the savings from lower maintenance spending. In this scenario, the total estimated cost of accidents reaches EUR 236 million, which is EUR 23.8 million higher than the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario.
• Scenario 3 (Increase in Road Works), which assumes 200 metres of road are closed for reconstruction annually from 2018 to 2060, is identified as the highest risk scenario in terms of cost. This scenario results in an NPV of EUR -132 million and an IRR of 1.63 per cent due to significantly higher capital and maintenance expenditures.
• Climate change poses a material risk to the infrastructure; Scenario 6, which models 2 km of road damage every 10 years, results in a decrease in traffic of 1.39 per cent and requires an additional operational CAPEX of EUR 7.3 million for reconstruction works.
• The project's funding structure included a EUR 212.4 million loan from the European Investment Bank, EUR 44.3 million in equity from Autoroute du Maroc (ADM), and EUR 54.6 million from the state of Morocco.

APA

Bassi, A. M., Casier, L., Perera, O., Pallaske, G., & Uzsoki, D. (2019). Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Contournement de Rabat, Morocco: A focus on road infrastructure. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-en.pdf

Chicago

Bassi, Andrea M., Liesbeth Casier, Oshani Perera, Georg Pallaske, and David Uzsoki. Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Contournement de Rabat, Morocco: A focus on road infrastructure. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-en.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bassi |first1=Andrea M. |last2=Casier |first2=Liesbeth |last3=Perera |first3=Oshani |last4=Pallaske |first4=Georg |last5=Uzsoki |first5=David |title=Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Contournement de Rabat, Morocco: A focus on road infrastructure |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=March 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-en.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bassi2019sustainable, author = {Bassi, Andrea M. and Casier, Liesbeth and Perera, Oshani and Pallaske, Georg and Uzsoki, David}, title = {{Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) of the Contournement de Rabat, Morocco: A focus on road infrastructure}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-contournement-morocco-en.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }