Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections

This briefing note by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) analyzes Environment Canada's 2014 report on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends. It highlights a significant gap between Canada's projected 2020 emissions and its Copenhagen Accord pledge, noting that while some sectors show mitigation, growth in the oil sands and general economic expansion continue to drive emissions upward.

• Canada is projected to have GHG emissions of 727 Mt in 2020, leaving a gap of 116 Mt to reach its Copenhagen Accord pledge of 611 Mt, which represents nearly 16 per cent of its 2005 emissions levels.
• The 2020 projections are heavily dependent on 19 Mt of net GHG sequestration from the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector; without this inclusion, 2020 emissions would be projected to exceed 2005 levels.
• As of 2012, the oil and gas sector became Canada's largest source of emissions, accounting for 25 per cent of the total national inventory. Sectoral emissions are projected to grow by 45 Mt between 2005 and 2020, primarily driven by the oil sands, which are expected to increase emissions by 69 Mt in that period.
• The electricity sector is expected to achieve 50 Mt of mitigation between 2005 and 2020, with 46 Mt of that reduction coming from coal-fired power plants. Key drivers include Ontario's coal phase-out and renewable portfolio standards in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
• Transportation emissions are expected to remain relatively stable between 2005 and 2020 because fuel-efficiency gains in passenger transport (-8 Mt) are being offset by growth in the freight subsector (+10 Mt).
• Building emissions are projected to increase by 14 Mt between 2005 and 2020, driven by expanded floor space and the increased use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are replacing HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol.
• Provincial emission trends vary significantly: Ontario is the primary source of reductions (37 Mt mitigation between 2005 and 2020), while Alberta is the primary source of growth (projected 55 Mt increase) due to the oil sands.

APA

Dion, J. (2015). Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/canada-emission-trends-2014-updates-outcomes-reflections.pdf

Chicago

Dion, Jason. Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2015. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/canada-emission-trends-2014-updates-outcomes-reflections.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dion |first1=Jason |title=Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=January 2015 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/canada-emission-trends-2014-updates-outcomes-reflections.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dion2015canadas, author = {Dion, Jason}, title = {{Canada’s Emissions Trends 2014 Report: Updates, outcomes and reflections}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2015}, month = jan, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/canada-emission-trends-2014-updates-outcomes-reflections.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }