The Future of Trade and Investment Deals in a Critical Minerals Boom

The document examines the tension between mineral-exporting and importing nations, noting that traditional trade and investment agreements often prioritize importer access over exporter development. It highlights the limitations of current Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) and voluntary ESG provisions, recommending that exporting countries reform 'old-generation' investment agreements and that importing countries support local value addition to build more resilient and responsible supply chains.

• Demand for certain critical minerals is projected to increase by up to seven times by 2030, driven by digital and energy transitions.
• A fundamental conflict exists between exporting countries, which seek to maximize domestic value addition and market diversification, and importing countries like China, the EU, and the US, which prioritize stable and affordable access to raw materials.
• While some countries like Indonesia and Chile have successfully negotiated policy space for export controls or pricing systems in EU agreements, most free trade agreements still focus on securing raw mineral access for importers.
• Older 'old-generation' investment agreements are criticized for protecting foreign investors at the expense of host country policy space, leading countries like Chile and Indonesia to renegotiate or terminate them.
• Current ESG provisions in trade agreements are frequently non-binding and voluntary, and Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs), such as those between the EU and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, often lack the transparency and enforceability needed to deliver practical economic opportunities.

APA

Baršauskaitė, I., Nikièma, S. H., Moerenhout, T., Ostřanský, J., Tipping, A., & Verma, R. (2025). The Future of Trade and Investment Deals in a Critical Minerals Boom. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/future-trade-and-investment-deals-critical-minerals-boom

Chicago

Baršauskaitė, Ieva, Suzy H. Nikièma, Tom Moerenhout, Josef Ostřanský, Alice Tipping, and Rupal Verma. The Future of Trade and Investment Deals in a Critical Minerals Boom. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/future-trade-and-investment-deals-critical-minerals-boom.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baršauskaitė |first1=Ieva |last2=Nikièma |first2=Suzy H. |last3=Moerenhout |first3=Tom |last4=Ostřanský |first4=Josef |last5=Tipping |first5=Alice |last6=Verma |first6=Rupal |title=The Future of Trade and Investment Deals in a Critical Minerals Boom |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=11 March 2025 |url=https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/future-trade-and-investment-deals-critical-minerals-boom |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{barauskait2025future, author = {Baršauskaitė, Ieva and Nikièma, Suzy H. and Moerenhout, Tom and Ostřanský, Josef and Tipping, Alice and Verma, Rupal}, title = {{The Future of Trade and Investment Deals in a Critical Minerals Boom}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = mar, url = {https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/future-trade-and-investment-deals-critical-minerals-boom}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }