The Production Gap

The 2020 Production Gap report highlights that current government plans for fossil fuel production far exceed the levels necessary to meet Paris Agreement temperature goals. To limit warming to 1.5°C, global production must decline annually by 11% for coal, 4% for oil, and 3% for gas, yet governments are planning annual increases of 2%. By 2030, countries aim to produce 120% more fossil fuels than is consistent with the 1.5°C limit. The report argues that the COVID-19 recovery presents a critical choice: either return to production trajectories that lock in catastrophic warming or implement a managed wind-down of fossil fuels as part of a 'build back better' strategy.

• To maintain a warming limit of 1.5°C, global fossil fuel production must decrease annually by 11% for coal, 4% for oil, and 3% for gas; however, governments are currently planning annual increases of 2%.
• There is a significant gap between planned production and climate goals, with countries intending to produce 120% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
• The COVID-19 pandemic recovery serves as a turning point where government stimulus and recovery measures will either lead back to production levels that cause severe climate disruption or enable a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (2020). The Production Gap. https://www.iisd.org/publications/production-gap-2020

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. The Production Gap. 2020. https://www.iisd.org/publications/production-gap-2020.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=The Production Gap |date=2 December 2020 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/production-gap-2020 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment2020production, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{The Production Gap}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/production-gap-2020}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }