Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance

This research paper analyzes the impact of US tariffs on Latin American economies and the subsequent indirect risks posed by China's potential policy responses. The authors argue that while direct US tariffs hit Mexico and Central America hardest, South American countries are more vulnerable to a slowdown in Chinese demand for raw materials.

• US tariffs have a varied direct impact across Latin America, with Mexico, Brazil, and most Central American countries facing effective tariff rates (TDE) above 10%. Mexico's effective rate is lower than the announced 25% 'fentanyl tariffs' because nearly half of its exports to the US are exempt under the USMCA.
• Certain Latin American and Caribbean nations experience very low effective tariff rates due to specific product exemptions. Guyana and Venezuela have the lowest rates because the vast majority of their exports to the US consist of oil, which is exempt. Similarly, Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, and Chile benefit from exemptions on tin, oil, and copper.
• South America is more vulnerable to China's economic health than to direct US tariffs. By 2024, China became the primary trading partner for most South American countries, accounting for approximately 28% of total exports compared to 16% for the US.
• A significant slowdown in the Chinese economy would likely lower global prices for raw materials, severely impacting South American economies that rely on exporting minerals, metals, and energy products to China. For example, China consumed over 50% of Chile's non-precious mineral exports in 2023 and 44.9% of mining exports from northwest Argentina in the first 11 months of 2024.
• China's ability to mitigate the impact of US tariffs—which the authors estimate at an effective rate of 32.2%—is constrained by debt and financial stability issues. Fiscal responses are limited by a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100%, and monetary responses (interest rate cuts) are hindered by low bank margins caused by the real estate crisis.

APA

Rojas-Suarez, L., & Albe, I. (n.d.). Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response

Chicago

Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, and Ignacio Albe. Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rojas-Suarez |first1=Liliana |last2=Albe |first2=Ignacio |title=Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rojassuarezndles, author = {Rojas-Suarez, Liliana and Albe, Ignacio}, title = {{Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }