Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance

The analysis highlights a dual challenge for Latin America: direct trade disruptions from US tariffs and indirect vulnerability to China's economic health. While Mexico and Central American countries face the highest effective tariff rates due to exports of steel, aluminum, and auto parts, South American nations are more exposed to a potential decline in Chinese demand for raw materials. The authors argue that China's ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate US tariff impacts will be critical for regional stability.

• US tariffs have a varied direct impact across Latin America, with Mexico, Brazil, and most Central American countries facing effective tariff rates (TDE) exceeding 10%.
• Mexico's effective tariff rate is lower than the announced 25% 'fentanyl tariffs' because nearly half of its exports to the US are exempt under the USMCA agreement.
• Certain South American countries experience very low effective tariff rates due to specific exemptions for commodities, such as oil for Guyana and Venezuela, copper for Chile, and tin for Bolivia.
• South America is more vulnerable to China's economic policy than to direct US tariffs, as China became the primary trading partner for most South American countries over the last 25 years, representing approximately 28% of total exports in 2024 compared to 16% for the US.
• A significant slowdown in the Chinese economy would likely reduce demand and lower prices for South American raw materials, such as non-precious minerals from Chile and mining exports from northwest Argentina.
• China's ability to mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs—which the authors estimate at an effective rate of 32.2%—depends on counter-cyclical policies, though these are hindered by a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100% and a crisis in the real estate market.

APA

Rojas-Suarez, L., & Albe, I. (n.d.). Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response

Chicago

Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, and Ignacio Albe. Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rojas-Suarez |first1=Liliana |last2=Albe |first2=Ignacio |title=Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rojassuarezndles, author = {Rojas-Suarez, Liliana and Albe, Ignacio}, title = {{Les droits de douane étasuniens frappent durement l'Amérique latine, mais la réponse politique de la Chine pourrait avoir encore plus d'importance}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/us-tariffs-latin-america-china-policy-response}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }