Zeroing In: A guide for the finance sector on the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario and its implications for oil and gas finance

The briefing explains that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires no new oil and gas field development after 2021, as existing production declines at a rate similar to the required drop in consumption. It argues that this conclusion is supported by IPCC scenarios and suggests the IEA's scenario may be conservative due to its reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS), which faces significant commercialization challenges.

• To limit global warming to 1.5°C, there is no requirement for new oil or gas fields to be developed after 2021, as existing and under-development fields are sufficient to meet demand.
• The necessity of halting new oil and gas development is based on the fact that required consumption must fall by approximately 3%–5% per year, which aligns with the average 4% annual production decline of conventional fields.
• The IEA's conclusion is consistent with other 1.5°C pathways, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), provided those scenarios do not rely on unrealistic levels of carbon dioxide removal.
• The IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario relies heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS), requiring 800 average-sized plants by 2030 (two new plants per week), despite only 27 commercial-scale plants currently existing worldwide.
• The IEA's Net Zero scenario can serve as a minimum standard for the finance sector—including banks, insurers, and investors—to align oil and gas investments with Paris Agreement goals.

APA

Trout,, G. M. (2022). Zeroing In: A guide for the finance sector on the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario and its implications for oil and gas finance. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/zeroing-finance-sector-oil-gas

Chicago

Trout,, Greg Muttitt,Kelly. Zeroing In: A guide for the finance sector on the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario and its implications for oil and gas finance. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/publications/zeroing-finance-sector-oil-gas.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Trout, |first1=Greg Muttitt,Kelly |title=Zeroing In: A guide for the finance sector on the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario and its implications for oil and gas finance |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=14 February 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/zeroing-finance-sector-oil-gas |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{trout2022zeroing, author = {Trout,, Greg Muttitt,Kelly}, title = {{Zeroing In: A guide for the finance sector on the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario and its implications for oil and gas finance}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/zeroing-finance-sector-oil-gas}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }