Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste

This fact sheet by the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) presents the results of macroeconomic modelling conducted with Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS) on the fiscal viability of implementing a Guaranteed Universal Basic Income (UBIG) in South Africa between 2023 and 2030. The document argues that a UBIG is both affordable and sustainable, projecting positive impacts on economic growth, poverty reduction, and unemployment.

• Modelling of three pathways (low, medium, and high ambition) for a basic income grant (BIG) for adults aged 18 to 59 indicates that such a system is fiscally sustainable and would positively impact growth, poverty, and unemployment. Poverty rates are projected to decrease by up to two-thirds over eight years, and GDP growth is predicted to increase from a 2.2% baseline to between 2.8% and 3.5% by 2030.
• The gross annual cost of a UBIG paying all adults aged 18-59 at the 2022 food poverty line (FPL) of R624 per month is R255 billion. However, assuming an initial take-up rate of 60% increasing to 80%, the estimated gross cost is between R153 billion and R204 billion per year.
• The net cost of a UBIG is significantly lower than the gross cost due to the 'multiplier effect' of spending in poor communities and direct tax recovery. Specifically, the government recovers approximately 12% of grant spending through VAT, as lower-income earners spend 81% of their disposable income on VAT-bearing items.
• A Social Security Tax (MSB) is proposed as a key funding mechanism to cross-subsidize the UBIG, potentially covering around 25% of its cost. In the high-ambition model, this tax is set at 4% of wages up to a taxable maximum of R2.5 million.
• Additional progressive funding options to target inequality include a wealth tax on the richest 1% of the population (estimated to raise R143 billion annually), a 25% VAT rate on luxury goods (R9 billion annually), and a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) of 0.1% (R41 billion annually).
• The document suggests that reducing government subsidies on pension and retirement fund assets, estimated at R133 billion, could also serve as a funding source, as these currently disproportionately benefit wealthier citizens.

APA

Institute for Economic Justice (2023). Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-Afrikaans.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Economic Justice. Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste. 2023. https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-Afrikaans.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Economic Justice |title=Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste |date=November 2023 |url=https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-Afrikaans.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforeconomicjustice2023modellering, author = {{Institute for Economic Justice}}, title = {{Modellering van fiskale roetes tot ‘n basiese inkomste}}, institution = {Institute for Economic Justice}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://iej.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/IEJ-UBIG-8-factsheet-Afrikaans.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }