Statement: MTBPS 2025 – Turning a Corner or Walking Towards a Dead End?

The IEJ argues that South Africa's 2025 MTBPS prioritises debt stabilisation over growth and social welfare, leading to 'indiscriminate and harmful cuts to spending' in health and education. The document criticises the reduction of the inflation target to 3%, the continued austerity in non-interest spending, and the reliance on private sector 'de-risking' and privatisation. It further highlights the precarious future of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant and the failure to address structural unemployment through activist fiscal policies.

• Debt stabilisation in the 2025 MTBPS has been achieved through spending cuts that have degraded critical public services. In education, 80% of public schools lack laboratories and 69% lack libraries. In healthcare, the number of doctors per 1,000 people decreased from 0.79 in 2019 to 0.54 in 2025.
• The National Treasury is maintaining an austerity-driven approach, with main budget non-interest spending projected to fall by an average of 0.71% per year in real terms over the medium term. This contradicts government rhetoric regarding an 'end to austerity'.
• The Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant has been extended until March 2027, but its future remains uncertain beyond that date. The grant's value remains below half of the current poverty food line, and the IEJ argues that attempts to link the grant to work-seeking are misplaced because unemployment in South Africa is structural.
• The National Treasury reduced the inflation target from a 3–6% range to a target of 3% (with a 1% variance allowance). The IEJ opposes this, stating that the repo rate is a 'blunt tool' that increases the cost of credit for households and constrains local investment.
• Public sector infrastructure spending of R1 trillion over the medium term is considered insufficient to meet the National Development Plan's target of fixed investment at 30% of GDP. Additionally, inflation-adjusted allocations for basic education and health are declining by 0.56% and 0.39% respectively.
• The government's strategy of 'de-risking' and privatisation is viewed as a fiscal risk that benefits the elite while burdening the state with contingent liabilities. For example, the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) has R229.5 billion in contingent liabilities but provides only 10% of public power consumption.

APA

Institute for Economic Justice (2025). Statement: MTBPS 2025 – Turning a Corner or Walking Towards a Dead End? https://iej.org.za/press-room/statements/statement-mtbps-2025-turning-a-corner-walking-towards-a-dead-end/

Chicago

Institute for Economic Justice. Statement: MTBPS 2025 – Turning a Corner or Walking Towards a Dead End? 2025. https://iej.org.za/press-room/statements/statement-mtbps-2025-turning-a-corner-walking-towards-a-dead-end/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=Institute for Economic Justice |title=Statement: MTBPS 2025 – Turning a Corner or Walking Towards a Dead End? |date=13 November 2025 |url=https://iej.org.za/press-room/statements/statement-mtbps-2025-turning-a-corner-walking-towards-a-dead-end/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{instituteforeconomicjustice2025statement, author = {{Institute for Economic Justice}}, title = {{Statement: MTBPS 2025 – Turning a Corner or Walking Towards a Dead End?}}, publisher = {Institute for Economic Justice}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://iej.org.za/press-room/statements/statement-mtbps-2025-turning-a-corner-walking-towards-a-dead-end/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }