Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America

The study validates a WRF model with 15 km grid spacing for weather forecasting and hydroclimate monitoring in the La Plata Basin. Testing against observations from August 2012 to July 2014 showed high prediction performance for a 7-day lead-time, with approximately 70% of rain and no-rain days correctly predicted in the basin and temperature correlations exceeding 0.80. The model successfully reproduced observed conditions during a drought in southern Brazil and a high-precipitation season in northeastern Argentina, demonstrating its utility for monitoring soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff.

• The WRF model demonstrated high prediction performance for a 7-day lead-time over the La Plata Basin, correctly predicting approximately 70% of rain and no-rain days, with a rain day detection probability exceeding 80% in humid regions.
• Temperature forecasts showed high correlation (r>0.80) with observations, with mean absolute errors at the maximum lead-time staying below 2.7°C for minimum and mean temperatures and below 3.7°C for maximum temperatures.
• The model's utility for hydroclimate monitoring was confirmed by its ability to reproduce observed precipitation conditions and their impacts on runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture during a drought in southern Brazil and a high-precipitation season in northeastern Argentina.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2025). Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/evaluation-of-wrf-model-forecasts-and-their-use-for-hydroclimate-monitoring-over-southern-south-america/

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America. 2025. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/evaluation-of-wrf-model-forecasts-and-their-use-for-hydroclimate-monitoring-over-southern-south-america/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America |date=13 January 2025 |url=https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/evaluation-of-wrf-model-forecasts-and-their-use-for-hydroclimate-monitoring-over-southern-south-america/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2025evaluation, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{Evaluation of WRF model forecasts and their use for hydroclimate monitoring over southern South America}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/evaluation-of-wrf-model-forecasts-and-their-use-for-hydroclimate-monitoring-over-southern-south-america/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }