MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024

The GreenCape Market Intelligence Report 2024 focuses on investment opportunities in South Africa's energy services market, specifically rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and behind-the-meter (BTM) lithium-ion energy storage. The report details the drivers of growth, such as rising electricity costs and loadshedding, as well as barriers including skilled labor shortages and port inefficiencies.

• The rooftop solar PV installation market is projected to reach an installed capacity of 10 GW with a market value of R130 billion by 2030, representing a total investment opportunity of R88.4 billion by 2030 or R14.7 billion annually.
• Rooftop solar PV growth is driven by rapidly rising electricity costs; inflation-adjusted average standard Eskom tariffs increased by 28.1% between 2018 and 2024, while average inflation was 4.56%.
• The BTM Li-ion energy storage market is expected to reach an installed capacity of 3.6 GWh by 2030 with a market value of R18 billion, providing an investment opportunity of R12 billion by 2030 or R2 billion per year.
• Li-ion batteries are the most cost-competitive backup technology for C&I and agricultural users, with a Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of R3.50 – R6.50 per kWh, compared to diesel generators at R6.50 – R11.00 per kWh.
• The South African government introduced several financial incentives to boost solar PV, including the Energy Bounce Back Loan Guarantee Scheme (EBB), the Agro Energy Fund (AEF), and a temporary 125% tax deduction for businesses under Section 12BA of the Income Tax Act for projects used between March 2023 and March 2025.
• A significant barrier to the rooftop solar market is the lack of skilled EPC company capacity, which can extend the average procurement cycle from a typical 3-6 months to between 18 and 30 months.
• South Africa's reliance on imported Li-ion cells and batteries is exacerbated by poor port performance; the four main container ports (Cape Town, Durban, Ngqura, and Gqeberha) ranked between 291st and 344th out of 348 ports worldwide on the Container Port Index.
• The BTM storage market is increasingly driven by 'value-stacking' use cases beyond simple backup, including peak shaving to avoid Notified Maximum Demand (NMD) penalties, tariff arbitrage, and load shifting.
• Municipal adoption of small-scale embedded generation (SSEG) is uneven; a SALGA survey found that only 43% of 165 municipal distributors allow SSEG on their networks, and only 26% have approved SSEG tariffs.

APA

Poorun, A., Terblanche, U., & Radmore, J. (2024). MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf

Chicago

Poorun, Argon, Ulrich Terblanche, and Jack Radmore. MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024. GreenCape, 2024. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Poorun |first1=Argon |last2=Terblanche |first2=Ulrich |last3=Radmore |first3=Jack |title=MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024 |publisher=GreenCape |date=2024 |url=https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{poorun2024market, author = {Poorun, Argon and Terblanche, Ulrich and Radmore, Jack}, title = {{MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2024}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }