MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024

The report highlights a rapidly growing energy services market in South Africa, driven by unreliable grid supply (loadshedding) and rising electricity costs. Rooftop solar PV and BTM Li-ion storage are identified as the most lucrative short-term opportunities, supported by new financing mechanisms and regulatory shifts. However, the sector faces significant headwinds from skilled labor shortages, institutional capacity constraints, and severe inefficiencies in port logistics affecting equipment imports.

• The rooftop solar PV market is experiencing rapid growth, with installed capacity increasing from 2.1 GW at the start of 2022 to 3.2 GW by the first quarter of 2023. The total investment opportunity for this segment is estimated at R88.4 billion by 2030, or approximately R14.7 billion per year.
• Rooftop solar PV adoption is driven by extreme electricity price increases; inflation-adjusted average standard Eskom tariffs rose by 28.1% between 2018 and 2024, with a 653% increase recorded from 2006 to 2022.
• Diverse financing mechanisms are enabling solar PV deployment, with asset or property secured commercial debt accounting for 60% to 70% of projects under 1 MWp. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) represent 30% to 35% of projects, while lease agreements make up 2% to 3%.
• The BTM Li-ion energy storage market grew by 140% in 2023, increasing from 500 MWh to 1.2 GWh, with a current market value of R9 billion. The total investment opportunity for BTM Li-ion storage is projected at R12 billion by 2030, or R2 billion per year.
• Li-ion batteries are cost-competitive compared to other backup technologies, with a Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of R3.50 – R6.50 per kWh, making them more economical over a 10-year period than diesel generators, which range from R6.50 – R11.00 per kWh.
• Government financial incentives are being used to stimulate the sector, including the Energy Bounce Back Loan Guarantee Scheme (EBB), the Agro Energy Fund (AEF), and a temporary 125% tax deduction for businesses under Section 12BA of the Income Tax Act for projects brought into use between March 2023 and March 2025.
• A critical barrier to market growth is the shortage of skilled EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) capacity, which has extended average procurement cycles for C&I projects from a typical 3-6 months to between 18 and 30 months.
• South Africa's heavy reliance on imported Li-ion cells and batteries is threatened by severe port inefficiencies. The country's four container ports ranked very poorly on the World Bank Container Port Index, with Cape Town ranking 344th and Durban 339th out of 348 ports.
• The BTM storage market faces technical and regulatory risks, specifically 'cold load pick-up,' where simultaneous battery recharging after loadshedding creates demand spikes that can worsen system-level loadshedding when residential penetration exceeds 15%.

APA

Poorun, A., Terblanche, U., & Radmore, J. (2024). MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf

Chicago

Poorun, Argon, Ulrich Terblanche, and Jack Radmore. MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024. GreenCape, 2024. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Poorun |first1=Argon |last2=Terblanche |first2=Ulrich |last3=Radmore |first3=Jack |title=MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024 |publisher=GreenCape |date=2024 |url=https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{poorun2024market, author = {Poorun, Argon and Terblanche, Ulrich and Radmore, Jack}, title = {{MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2024}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Energy-Services-MIR-2024-digital.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }