CHARTING CALIFORNIA’S CARBON COURSE: WHY AND HOW THE STATE SHOULD SET A 2030 TARGET OF 40% BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS

The report proposes a 2030 target for California to reduce carbon emissions to 40% below 1990 levels, asserting that this is technically feasible and economically viable. It recommends maintaining a policy portfolio where a broad cap-and-trade program acts as an emissions ceiling over sector-specific policies. To manage costs and uncertainty, the author suggests extending current cost-containment tools, including a three-tiered allowance reserve and a forward-borrowing mechanism. The analysis incorporates both capped emissions and uncapped sectors—such as agriculture and waste—predicting that the state can reach the target through commercially available technology and induced innovation in clean tech industries.

• California should adopt a 2030 statewide carbon target of 40% below 1990 emissions levels, which would place the state halfway toward its 2050 target of 80% below 1990 levels in one-third of the time.
• The recommended 2030 target is technically feasible using commercially available technology, supported by analyses from Greenblatt (2015) and Energy and Environmental Economics (E3).
• The state should maintain its current policy structure, using a broad cap-and-trade program as an economy-wide emissions ceiling while relying on sector-specific policies for the majority of reductions.
• To ensure cost containment post-2020, the report recommends a three-tiered reserve system comprising 7% of the extended program's allowances and allowing borrowing from future years' allowances up to six years forward on a rolling basis.
• Uncapped emissions, primarily from agriculture, forestry, and waste, are estimated to represent 22.5% of aggregate emissions in 2020; the report assumes these will decline at half the rate of capped sectors between 2020 and 2030.
• Economic analysis by E3 suggests that achieving these targets involves small net costs or even small net benefits, with the total value of allowances in 2030 likely not exceeding 1% of the overall economy.
• The report estimates that between 80 and 120 million metric tons of CO2e in allowances could be banked by the end of 2020, which would facilitate the achievement of future targets.
• Stronger climate targets are expected to drive 'induced innovation' in California's clean tech sectors, such as solar power and electric vehicles, without causing net macroeconomic downside.

APA

Busch, C. (2015). CHARTING CALIFORNIA’S CARBON COURSE: WHY AND HOW THE STATE SHOULD SET A 2030 TARGET OF 40% BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/CA_CapReport_Mar2015.pdf

Chicago

Busch, Chris. CHARTING CALIFORNIA’S CARBON COURSE: WHY AND HOW THE STATE SHOULD SET A 2030 TARGET OF 40% BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS. Energy Innovation, 2015. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/CA_CapReport_Mar2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Busch |first1=Chris |title=CHARTING CALIFORNIA’S CARBON COURSE: WHY AND HOW THE STATE SHOULD SET A 2030 TARGET OF 40% BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=March 2015 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/CA_CapReport_Mar2015.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2015charting, author = {Busch, Chris}, title = {{CHARTING CALIFORNIA’S CARBON COURSE: WHY AND HOW THE STATE SHOULD SET A 2030 TARGET OF 40\% BELOW THE 1990 LEVEL OF CARBON EMISSIONS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/CA_CapReport_Mar2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }