TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035

The document predicts that freezing federal fuel economy standards at 2020 levels would cost the U.S. economy $450 billion through 2050 and increase transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions by 11% by 2035. It notes that these costs and emissions increases would be lower if California retains its authority to set more stringent standards. The analysis indicates that while initial costs of manufacturing might decrease, these are outweighed by rising fuel expenses, with the primary beneficiaries being oil companies.

• Freezing federal fuel economy standards at 2020 levels is projected to cost the U.S. economy $450 billion in real 2018 dollars (discounted at 3% annually) through 2050. If California maintains its right to set more stringent standards, this economic cost is reduced to $274 billion.
• The rollback would lead to an 11% increase in transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, rising from a projected 1,293 million metric tons of CO2e under current policy to 1,432 million metric tons. If California's authority is not revoked, the increase would be 7% (1,378 million metric tons).
• Gasoline consumption is expected to increase by 20% in 2035, rising from 1,837 to 2,200 million barrels per year if standards are frozen. Cumulatively from 2021 to 2050, the freeze would increase gasoline consumption by 6.9 billion barrels, or 4.3 billion if California retains its standards.
• The financial impact on consumers, if modeled as a gasoline tax, would peak in 2040 at 57 cents per gallon, and would exceed 45 cents per gallon in every year after 2033.

APA

RISSMAN, J., & ORVIS, R. (2018). TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf

Chicago

RISSMAN, JEFFREY, and ROBBIE ORVIS. TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035. Energy Innovation, 2018. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RISSMAN |first1=JEFFREY |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |title=TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035 |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2018 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rissman2018trumps, author = {RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST \$450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11\% THROUGH 2035}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }