TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035

This research note by Energy Innovation analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a proposed Trump Administration policy to freeze federal fuel economy standards for cars and SUVs at 2020 levels, undoing planned increases for model years 2022 to 2025.

• Freezing federal fuel economy standards is projected to cost the U.S. economy $450 billion in real 2018 dollars (discounted at 3% annually) through 2050. If California maintains its authority to set more stringent standards, this economic loss would be reduced to $274 billion through 2050.
• The policy rollback would increase transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. By 2035, emissions are projected to rise from 1,293 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e under current policy to 1,432 MMT if standards are frozen, representing an 11% increase. If California's authority is not revoked, the 2035 emissions would be 1,378 MMT, a 7% increase.
• Gasoline consumption would increase significantly, particularly in the 2030s. In 2035, gasoline use is projected to increase from 1,837 to 2,200 million barrels per year (a 20% increase) with frozen standards, or to 2,057 million barrels per year (a 12% increase) if California is excluded. Cumulatively from 2021-2050, the freeze would increase gasoline consumption by 6.9 billion barrels, or 4.3 billion barrels without California.
• The financial impact on consumers, if modeled as a gasoline tax, would peak in 2040 by adding 57 cents per gallon. Added costs would exceed 45 cents per gallon in every modeled year after 2033.

APA

RISSMAN, J., & ORVIS, R. (2018). TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf

Chicago

RISSMAN, JEFFREY, and ROBBIE ORVIS. TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035. Energy Innovation, 2018. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=RISSMAN |first1=JEFFREY |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |title=TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST $450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11% THROUGH 2035 |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2018 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rissman2018trumps, author = {RISSMAN, JEFFREY and ORVIS, ROBBIE}, title = {{TRUMP’S FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD ROLLBACK WILL COST \$450 BILLION THROUGH 2050, INCREASE EMISSIONS 11\% THROUGH 2035}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2018}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Trump-Fuel-Efficiency-Standard-Rollback-Research-Note_7.26.18.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }