Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary

The U.S. Senate's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is projected to reduce new electricity capacity by 340 GW by 2035, primarily affecting wind and solar. This reduction, combined with higher gas prices, is expected to increase wholesale electricity prices by 74% by 2035 and raise residential electricity rates by 10 to 18%. Consequently, the bill is forecast to cause annual GDP losses of $130 billion by 2030 and peak job losses of 900,000 in 2032.

• The Senate bill is projected to significantly reduce domestic electricity generation capacity by 2035 by 340 gigawatts, driven by the phase-out of technology-neutral clean energy tax credits and complex material sourcing requirements. Wind capacity is expected to decrease by approximately 200 GW, solar by 150 GW, and grid batteries by 17 GW. While natural gas capacity is forecast to increase by 19 GW by 2035, supply chain issues are expected to prevent any additional gas buildout for the next five years.
• Electricity prices are expected to rise significantly under the Senate bill, with wholesale prices increasing by 25% by 2030 and 74% by 2035. Total wholesale electricity costs are projected to rise from $140 billion to $230 billion by 2035. This is expected to result in electricity rate increases of 10 to 18% for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers by 2035, with annual household energy bills increasing by $130 by 2030 and $170 by 2035.
• The bill is forecast to negatively impact the U.S. economy through decreased private investment and job losses. Annual GDP losses are projected at $130 billion by 2030 and $110 billion by 2035, with a total cost of $980 billion in GDP over the budget window. Employment is expected to decline, with job losses reaching 760,000 by 2030 and peaking at 900,000 in 2032.

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndeconomic, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }