Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary

This briefing by Energy Innovation analyzes the economic impacts of the U.S. Senate's version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," passed on July 1st. The analysis forecasts that the bill's energy provisions—specifically the phase-out of clean energy tax credits and new material sourcing requirements—will reduce electricity capacity, increase power prices for consumers, and decrease U.S. GDP and employment.

• The Senate bill is projected to significantly reduce domestic electricity generation capacity by 2035, with a total forecast decrease of 340 gigawatts. The largest losses are expected in wind (200 GW less) and solar (150 GW less), while grid batteries would see 17 GW fewer installations. Although 19 GW of additional natural gas capacity is foreseen by 2035, supply chain issues are expected to prevent any new gas buildout for the next five years.
• Electricity prices are expected to rise significantly under the Senate bill. Wholesale prices are forecast to increase by 25 percent by 2030 and 74 percent by 2035, with total wholesale costs rising from $140 billion to $230 billion by 2035. This is expected to result in electricity rate increases of 10 to 18 percent for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers by 2035, with annual household energy bills increasing by $130 by 2030 and $170 by 2035.
• The bill is forecast to cause substantial economic losses in the U.S., including annual GDP losses of $130 billion by 2030 and $110 billion by 2035, totaling $980 billion in GDP losses over the budget window. Employment is also expected to decline, with job losses of 760,000 by 2030, peaking at 900,000 in 2032, and then decreasing to 700,000 by 2035.

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndeconomic, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{Economic Impacts of U.S. Senate “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” Energy Provisions Summary}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Senate-Reconciliation-Analysis_July-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }