RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET

This fact sheet summarizes a study by Energy Innovation on the reliability of accelerated clean electricity portfolios in California, specifically testing an 85% clean electricity target for 2030. Using a production cost model (PLEXOS) to stress-test three portfolios against variables such as low hydro, reduced gas availability, and limited imports, the study concludes that reaching this target is feasible and reliable across most weather years and stress conditions.

• Reaching a target of 85% clean electricity by 2030 is feasible and reliable for California. The study found that each tested portfolio and stress condition could serve load across many weather years, with the only exception being a scenario where all stress factors—low hydro, less gas, limited imports, and retired coal across the West—occurred simultaneously, resulting in a small amount of unserved load.
• Battery storage is critical for reducing system stress, specifically by lowering the evening net load ramp (the "duck curve") by an average of 42%, reducing it from 26.8 GW over three hours to 15.5 GW. Additionally, diversifying the portfolio with offshore wind and geothermal resources helps reduce reliance on imports, in-state gas, and inverter-based resources, while easing siting challenges associated with solar.
• While in-state gas remains important for reliability, the study found that nearly one-third of the in-state gas fleet could be retired while remaining resource adequate, provided California is comfortable relying on imports without contracts. To eventually replace the full gas fleet, the state would need resources of comparable service, such as longer duration storage, peaking wind, or firm clean resources like nuclear, biomass, hydrogen, or geothermal.
• California's power system functions most optimally when sharing power with the rest of the West through a mix of dedicated and economic imports. The analysis indicates that the West has sufficient resources (the "WECC wide hourly reserve margin") to support California even if clean energy replaces coal across the region.

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet-for-Printing.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet-for-Printing.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet-for-Printing.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndreliably, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{RELIABLY REACHING CALIFORNIA’S CLEAN ELECTRICITY TARGETS STRESS TESTING ACCELERATED 2030 CLEAN PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet-for-Printing.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }