Closing the Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC

This fact sheet by Energy Innovation analyzes the gap between the emissions reductions projected from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the United States' 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target. Using the U.S. Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the document identifies additional policy measures across electricity, industry, transportation, and buildings necessary to reach the NDC goal.

• The United States aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 under its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of August 2022 puts the U.S. on a trajectory to reduce emissions by roughly 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, further reductions are required to meet the NDC target.
• To align the electricity sector with the 2030 NDC, the U.S. needs to reach 80 percent clean power by 2030. This can be achieved through state clean electricity standards, federal pollution standards, and requirements for all new fossil plants to use carbon capture and sequestration, alongside transmission and permitting reforms.
• The IRA is projected to have limited impact on the industry and building sectors, reducing emissions in industry by 6 percent and in buildings by 5 to 6 percent by 2030. Meeting NDC targets in these sectors requires stronger federal emissions and efficiency standards for industrial heating, tighter standards for methane and F-gases, and more rigorous appliance standards and building code enforcement.
• Achieving the NDC target through additional policies would significantly increase public health and economic gains compared to the IRA alone. By 2030, the NDC scenario would avoid 6,800 premature deaths and 185,600 asthma attacks, compared to 2,900 deaths and 77,400 asthma attacks under the IRA. Economically, the combined IRA and NDC policies could create nearly 4 million jobs annually, increase GDP by 2.6 percent per year (approximately $690 billion), and reduce household energy bills by $110 per year.
• The NDC scenario provides greater protection against climate damages than the IRA alone. Based on the EPA's social cost of carbon, the NDC scenario would result in $383 billion in avoided climate damages in 2030, whereas the IRA alone would avoid $203 billion.

APA

Energy Innovation (n.d.). Closing the Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Closing-the-Emissions-Gap-Between-the-IRA-and-2030-NDC-one-pager.pdf

Chicago

Energy Innovation. Closing the Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC. n.d. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Closing-the-Emissions-Gap-Between-the-IRA-and-2030-NDC-one-pager.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Energy Innovation |title=Closing the Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Closing-the-Emissions-Gap-Between-the-IRA-and-2030-NDC-one-pager.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{energyinnovationndclosing, author = {{Energy Innovation}}, title = {{Closing the Emissions Gap Between the IRA and 2030 U.S. NDC}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Closing-the-Emissions-Gap-Between-the-IRA-and-2030-NDC-one-pager.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }