ANALYZING THE GAS SYSTEM: A FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE CONSUMER COSTS AND RISKS

The report proposes a Gas System Analysis (GSA) framework to counter rising consumer costs and risks associated with massive gas infrastructure investments. It outlines a three-part process: depicting current system characteristics, defining future scenarios (including business-as-usual and alternative pathways), and forecasting impacts on costs, emissions, and public health. The framework aims to prevent stranded assets and support the transition to clean heat through electrification and non-pipeline alternatives.

• U.S. gas utilities are engaging in massive capital spending, with construction-related expenditures rising from $32.7 billion in 2022 to $49.1 billion in 2023, and potential cumulative spending reaching $1.4 trillion by 2050.
• Rising utility rates are exacerbating affordability challenges for consumers; an analysis by the Center for American Progress indicates that at least 210 U.S. gas and electric utilities have proposed or implemented rate hikes that could increase bills by $18.7 billion for gas and $71.2 billion for electricity by 2028.
• A Gas System Analysis (GSA) is proposed as a tool to provide transparency and a baseline for decision-making. It consists of three primary functions: accurately depicting current system conditions, exploring assumptions for different future scenarios (including a business-as-usual case), and forecasting gas demand and infrastructure needs to compare costs and benefits.
• The framework emphasizes the need to model alternative future pathways beyond business-as-usual, such as full electrification, hybrid electrification, thermal energy networks, and the use of non-pipeline alternatives (NPAs) to avoid long-lived assets that may become stranded.
• The report highlights a growing trend toward electrification in the U.S., noting that in 2024, air-source heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by 32%, and electric water heaters have outsold gas counterparts for three consecutive years.
• Regulators can use GSA findings to implement specific policy actions, such as requiring clean heat or gas decarbonization plans, initiating joint gas-electric utility planning to reduce redundancies, and reforming amortization or depreciation methods for assets.

APA

Baldwin, S., & Poulson, T. (2025). ANALYZING THE GAS SYSTEM: A FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE CONSUMER COSTS AND RISKS. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Analyzing-the-Gas-System-A-Framework-to-Reduce-Consumer-Costs-and-Risks.pdf

Chicago

Baldwin, Sara, and Tyler Poulson. ANALYZING THE GAS SYSTEM: A FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE CONSUMER COSTS AND RISKS. Energy Innovation, 2025. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Analyzing-the-Gas-System-A-Framework-to-Reduce-Consumer-Costs-and-Risks.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baldwin |first1=Sara |last2=Poulson |first2=Tyler |title=ANALYZING THE GAS SYSTEM: A FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE CONSUMER COSTS AND RISKS |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=December 2025 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Analyzing-the-Gas-System-A-Framework-to-Reduce-Consumer-Costs-and-Risks.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{baldwin2025analyzing, author = {Baldwin, Sara and Poulson, Tyler}, title = {{ANALYZING THE GAS SYSTEM: A FRAMEWORK TO REDUCE CONSUMER COSTS AND RISKS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Analyzing-the-Gas-System-A-Framework-to-Reduce-Consumer-Costs-and-Risks.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }