Zero-carbon power is a key milestone on the route to net-zero

This briefing by Ember analyzes energy scenarios from the UK, EU, and US, identifying a consensus that achieving zero-carbon electricity by the 2030s is a critical milestone for meeting 2050 net-zero targets. The report details the necessary phase-out of coal and gas, the required acceleration of wind and solar deployment, and the role of system flexibility and low-carbon firm power.

• There is an 'unspoken consensus' among the UK, EU, and US that achieving clean electricity in the 2030s is essential for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
• All three regions are moving toward a rapid end to coal-fired electricity, with significant reductions expected before 2030. The UK expects the last coal plants to close by 2024, while the US is projected to phase out coal by 2035, and potentially as early as 2030.
• The UK and US are aligned on phasing out unabated fossil gas by 2035. In contrast, EU scenarios show a slower decline, with unabated fossil generation still accounting for approximately 3% of production (~200TWh) in 2050.
• Wind and solar are projected to become the dominant electricity sources from 2030 in the UK and EU, with a similar trend indicated for the US. This requires a massive increase in deployment rates; for example, the US would need average annual additions of 100GW of wind and solar until 2035, compared to a historical average of 13GW over the last five years.
• To support high shares of variable renewables, the regions rely on different flexibility and firm power strategies. The UK's pathway includes 18GW of batteries by 2035 and assumes hydrogen or gas CCS will be available by 2035. The US '90% clean' scenario scales battery storage to 150GW (600GWh) by 2035 to cover 20% of demand.
• A credibility gap exists among OECD nations where net-zero pledges are not matched by near-term power sector plans. Japan is the only G7 member without a coal phase-out commitment, and Germany's 2038 phase-out date is the latest in the G7.

APA

Rosslowe, C. (2021). Zero-carbon power is a key milestone on the route to net-zero. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/04/Zero-Carbon-Power.pdf

Chicago

Rosslowe, Chris. Zero-carbon power is a key milestone on the route to net-zero. Ember, 2021. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/04/Zero-Carbon-Power.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosslowe |first1=Chris |title=Zero-carbon power is a key milestone on the route to net-zero |publisher=Ember |date=April 2021 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/04/Zero-Carbon-Power.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosslowe2021zerocarbon, author = {Rosslowe, Chris}, title = {{Zero-carbon power is a key milestone on the route to net-zero}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2021/04/Zero-Carbon-Power.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }