Solar and flexibility: key to Türkiye’s rising cooling challenge

Türkiye's cooling-related electricity consumption reached 10 TWh in 2024, growing by 26% since 2022. This trend is shifting peak electricity demand from winter to summer, with the gap between summer and winter peaks widening to 9.1 GW by 2025. The report projects that cooling demand could reach 35 TWh by 2035, with peak hourly demand potentially hitting 85 GWh. To address this, the study recommends expanding distributed solar power, which aligns with peak cooling hours, implementing energy storage (including pumped-storage hydro), and improving data collection on air conditioner ownership to enhance demand forecasting.

• Cooling-related electricity consumption in Türkiye grew by 26% between 2022 and 2024, reaching 10 TWh in 2024. This represents an average annual growth rate of 12%, significantly outpacing the overall electricity demand growth of 2.8% during the same period.
• Cooling is becoming a critical driver of peak electricity demand. On July 28, 2025, cooling accounted for 18% of the record hourly electricity demand of 59 GWh. During summer months, cooling typically represents more than 10% of electricity use between 12:00 PM and 6:00 PM.
• The seasonal demand profile of Türkiye's grid has shifted; since 2008, the highest hourly electricity consumption has occurred in summer rather than winter. The gap between summer and winter peak demand widened from 0.8 GW in 2008 to 9.1 GW in 2025.
• Climate change is directly increasing the need for generation capacity, with every 1 °C rise in average temperature during cooling months requiring an additional 0.77 GW of electricity generation capacity.
• Future projections suggest cooling electricity use could more than double by 2030 to 20 TWh and reach 35 TWh by 2035. Peak hourly demand could increase by 50% by 2035, potentially reaching 85 GWh.
• Solar energy is highly effective for meeting cooling demand because its peak generation coincides with peak cooling hours. Between 2019 and 2024, the share of solar power meeting demand during peak cooling hours (12:00 PM – 4:00 PM) more than doubled.
• To manage future loads, the report recommends expanding rooftop solar (with a potential of over 120 GW), utilizing grid-scale battery systems, and employing pumped-storage hydroelectric plants for seasonal and hourly flexibility.
• A significant data gap exists regarding the number, efficiency, and distribution of air conditioners in the residential and service sectors, which hinders accurate regional and national demand forecasting.

APA

Gümüş, B. S. (2025). Solar and flexibility: key to Türkiye’s rising cooling challenge. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/08/Solar-and-flexibility-key-to-Turkiyes-rising-cooling-challenge.pdf

Chicago

Gümüş, Bahadır Sercan. Solar and flexibility: key to Türkiye’s rising cooling challenge. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/08/Solar-and-flexibility-key-to-Turkiyes-rising-cooling-challenge.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gümüş |first1=Bahadır Sercan |title=Solar and flexibility: key to Türkiye’s rising cooling challenge |publisher=Ember |date=21 August 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/08/Solar-and-flexibility-key-to-Turkiyes-rising-cooling-challenge.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gm2025solar, author = {Gümüş, Bahadır Sercan}, title = {{Solar and flexibility: key to Türkiye’s rising cooling challenge}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/08/Solar-and-flexibility-key-to-Turkiyes-rising-cooling-challenge.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }