A power sector analysis of draft NECPs

This report by Ember provides an interim analysis of 15 draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) from EU Member States, focusing on the power sector transition. It finds that while wind and solar capacity targets have increased significantly since 2019, they still fall short of REPowerEU goals. The analysis highlights a critical lack of quantified targets for electricity storage and flexibility, as well as poor data quality and transparency across the submitted plans.

• Solar and wind capacity targets in the analysed draft NECPs have increased significantly since 2019, with solar targets rising by an average of 64% and wind by 49%. If delivered, the EU solar fleet is expected to triple and the wind fleet to double by 2030.
• Despite the increase in ambition, planned capacities remain below REPowerEU goals. The estimated total EU solar fleet of 617 GW for 2030 is 123 GW short of the 740 GW proposed in the REPowerEU plan. Similarly, the estimated EU wind fleet of 445 GW by 2030 falls short of the 500 GW target mentioned in the Wind Power Action Plan.
• Renewable electricity is projected to generate between 66-67% of EU electricity by 2030 based on updated targets and national announcements. Some Member States, including Denmark, Lithuania, and Portugal, are expected to exceed 90% renewable electricity by 2030.
• There is a significant lack of detail and quantified targets for clean flexibility and electricity storage. Only six of the 15 analysed plans provide quantified targets for growing electricity storage by 2030.
• The report identifies a severe deficiency in data availability and transparency within the draft NECPs. Only Spain provided comprehensive data across key metrics including GHG emissions, final energy demand, electricity generation, and installed generation capacity.
• The report notes inconsistencies in fossil fuel phase-out commitments. While Spain's draft NECP shows no active coal capacity from 2025, Hungary and Italy have pushed back their previous coal phase-out commitments to 2030 and 2026-2028 respectively.

APA

Rosslowe, C., & Harrison, T. (n.d.). A power sector analysis of draft NECPs. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf

Chicago

Rosslowe, Chris, and Tomos Harrison. A power sector analysis of draft NECPs. Ember, n.d. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosslowe |first1=Chris |last2=Harrison |first2=Tomos |title=A power sector analysis of draft NECPs |publisher=Ember |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosslowendpower, author = {Rosslowe, Chris and Harrison, Tomos}, title = {{A power sector analysis of draft NECPs}}, institution = {Ember}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }