A power sector analysis of draft NECPs

The analysis of 15 draft NECPs reveals a significant increase in wind and solar capacity targets since 2019, bringing the EU closer to REPowerEU goals, though still falling short. While renewable electricity is projected to generate 66-67% of EU electricity by 2030, the report highlights a critical lack of quantified targets for electricity storage and clean flexibility. Furthermore, the document criticises the poor quality and transparency of data provided in the draft plans, which hinders accountability and investment signals.

• Wind and solar capacity targets have increased significantly since 2019, with solar targets rising by an average of 64% and wind by 49% across the 15 analysed drafts. This trajectory suggests the EU solar fleet will triple and the wind fleet will double by 2030.
• Despite the increase, planned deployment remains below REPowerEU goals. The estimated total EU solar fleet of 617 GW for 2030 is 123 GW short of the 740 GW proposed in REPowerEU, while the estimated wind fleet of 445 GW is short of the 500 GW target.
• Renewables are expected to dominate the EU power sector, potentially generating 66-67% of electricity by 2030. Some member states, including Denmark, Lithuania, and Portugal, are projected to exceed 90% renewable electricity by 2030.
• There is a significant lack of detail and quantified targets for clean flexibility and electricity storage. Only six of the 15 analysed plans provide quantified targets for growing electricity storage, which the report describes as a missed opportunity for European innovation.
• The quality and transparency of data in the draft NECPs are generally very poor. Only Spain provided comprehensive data across key metrics such as GHG emissions, final energy demand, electricity generation, and installed generation capacity.
• Progress on phasing out coal varies; while Spain's draft plan shows no active coal capacity from 2025, Hungary and Italy have pushed back their previous phase-out commitments to 2030 and 2026-2028 respectively.

APA

Rosslowe, C., & Harrison, T. (n.d.). A power sector analysis of draft NECPs. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf

Chicago

Rosslowe, Chris, and Tomos Harrison. A power sector analysis of draft NECPs. Ember, n.d. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosslowe |first1=Chris |last2=Harrison |first2=Tomos |title=A power sector analysis of draft NECPs |publisher=Ember |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosslowendpower, author = {Rosslowe, Chris and Harrison, Tomos}, title = {{A power sector analysis of draft NECPs}}, institution = {Ember}, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/NECP-analysis-for-EU-COM_-FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }