Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe

This report by Ember analyzes the evolving potential of geothermal electricity in Europe, highlighting how technological advances in drilling and reservoir engineering are making geothermal a cost-competitive, firm, low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels. It emphasizes that while Europe pioneered many of these technologies, it now risks losing its leadership to the US and Canada due to a lack of coordinated EU-level policy and investment frameworks.

• Technological advances in 'next generation geothermal'—including Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), artificial heat carriers, and closed-loop systems—have removed the requirement for naturally occurring permeability. This allows geothermal power to be produced in non-volcanic regions and is expected to drive global capacity growth to nearly 1.5 GW of new capacity annually by 2030.
• In the European Union, approximately 43 GW of enhanced geothermal capacity could be developed at costs below 100 €/MWh, which is comparable to the short-run marginal costs of coal and gas electricity in European markets. This capacity could generate about 301.3 TWh of electricity per year, representing roughly 42% of the EU's coal- and gas-fired generation in 2025.
• The techno-economic potential for geothermal power in continental Europe at costs below 100 €/MWh is around 50 GW. Hungary holds the largest share at 28 GW, followed by Türkiye (almost 6 GW), and Poland, Germany, and France (around 4 GW each).
• Geothermal energy offers system flexibility through the ability to store thermal and pressure energy in reservoirs, with simulations showing storage efficiencies comparable to lithium-ion batteries. Additionally, geothermal brines can be used to recover up to 95% of contained lithium using direct extraction techniques, which is more efficient and cleaner than hard-rock mining.
• Drilling costs have decreased by approximately 40% over the last decade due to techniques adapted from the oil and gas sector. This has enabled commercial access to deeper resources; while EU assessments were previously limited to 2,000m, current projects are reaching depths beyond 4,000m, with some already reaching close to 5,000m.
• Geothermal power is identified as a viable solution for the increasing electricity demands of data centers. In the US, it could economically meet up to 64% of new data center demand by the early 2030s. While companies like Google and Meta are deploying geothermal in the US, no similar cooperations have been announced in Europe.
• Despite having 147 operational plants as of 2024 and leading in EGS project numbers (42 projects), Europe is losing its competitive edge to the US and Canada. This is attributed to lengthy permitting, inconsistent national support, and the absence of a coordinated EU strategy, whereas the US has utilized federal legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act to provide clear economic signals.

APA

Mindeková, T., & Geneletti, G. (2026). Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/Hot-stuff-geothermal-energy-in-Europe-1.pdf

Chicago

Mindeková, Tatiana, and Gianluca Geneletti. Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/Hot-stuff-geothermal-energy-in-Europe-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mindeková |first1=Tatiana |last2=Geneletti |first2=Gianluca |title=Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe |publisher=Ember |date=4 February 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/Hot-stuff-geothermal-energy-in-Europe-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mindekov2026hot, author = {Mindeková, Tatiana and Geneletti, Gianluca}, title = {{Hot stuff: geothermal energy in Europe}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/02/Hot-stuff-geothermal-energy-in-Europe-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }