Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition

This report by Ember analyzes the onshore wind energy potential in Bavaria, Germany. It argues that current restrictive distance regulations, specifically the 10H rule, have severely limited wind power development. The analysis demonstrates that relaxing these distance requirements to 800 or 1,000 metres would allow Bavaria to significantly increase its wind capacity, meet its 2030 renewable energy targets, and reduce its dependence on imported fossil gas.

• Bavaria currently has 2.6 GW of installed wind capacity, but this could increase significantly if distance restrictions between turbines and residences are reduced. If the distance were reduced to 1,000 metres across the region, capacity could more than triple to 9 GW, increasing annual generation to 14 TWh. If reduced to 800 metres across the state, capacity could jump almost sixfold to 15 GW, generating 22 TWh annually.
• The 10H rule, introduced in 2014, requires wind turbines to be located at a distance of ten times their height from the nearest settlement, which has caused permitting for onshore wind projects to almost stop. Even under these strict 10H restrictions, the report finds Bavaria could still double its installed wind capacity to 5.2 GW and increase annual generation from 4 TWh to 8 TWh.
• Bavaria has a 2030 target to increase electricity generated from renewables from 40 TWh to 78 TWh. While solar is expected to provide 27 TWh of the required 38 TWh increase, the remaining 11 TWh gap could be predominantly (~90%) met by onshore wind if distance restrictions were relaxed to 1,000 metres.
• Increasing wind generation would enhance Bavaria's energy sovereignty by reducing its reliance on imported gas. With an 800-metre distance rule, Bavaria could replace the 14 TWh of electricity it currently produces from fossil gas and slash its annual gas consumption by at least 28 TWh (27%). This would result in yearly savings of €1.3 billion based on expected 2024 gas prices, or €3.4 billion if prices returned to 2022 levels.

APA

Brown, S., & Mewes, C. (2023). Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Bavarias-wind-potential-can-deliver-more-than-its-transition-1.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Sarah, and Clara Mewes. Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition. Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Bavarias-wind-potential-can-deliver-more-than-its-transition-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Sarah |last2=Mewes |first2=Clara |title=Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition |publisher=Ember |date=4 December 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Bavarias-wind-potential-can-deliver-more-than-its-transition-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2023bavarias, author = {Brown, Sarah and Mewes, Clara}, title = {{Bavaria's wind potential can deliver more than its transition}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Bavarias-wind-potential-can-deliver-more-than-its-transition-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }