Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030

The report finds that while renewable electricity generation in the EU is projected to nearly double by 2030, the current National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are insufficient to meet the EU Commission's recommended 55% emissions reduction target. Seven countries—Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Romania—are identified as the primary barriers, collectively projected to be responsible for 80% of the EU's power sector emissions by 2030 due to continued reliance on coal and fossil gas.

• Renewable electricity generation is projected to nearly double by 2030, providing almost 60% of EU electricity, with wind and solar accounting for at least 40% of the supply.
• The EU is not on track to meet the EU Commission's recommended 55% reduction in total emissions by 2030; achieving this would require increasing wind and solar deployment plans by one third, or approximately 25TWh per year.
• Fossil fuels are expected to still generate about 25% of EU electricity by 2030, with coal generation projected to fall by only 53% compared to 2018 levels.
• Seven countries are identified as the main barriers to the EU's electricity transition, projected to be responsible for 80% of the EU's power sector emissions by 2030: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Romania, and Poland (limited or no progress), and Germany and Italy (slow progress).
• By 2030, four countries—Germany, Poland, Italy, and Czechia—will account for approximately 70% of all emissions from electricity generation in the EU, an increase from just over 60% in 2018.
• Total electricity generated from nuclear power plants in the EU-27 is expected to decrease by approximately 19% by 2030, with the most significant decline occurring in Germany due to a legal phase-out by the end of 2022.

APA

Ember (2020). Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7

Chicago

Ember. Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030. 2020. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030 |date=9 November 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2020vision, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }