Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030

This report by Ember analyzes the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of EU countries to assess the trajectory of the EU power sector toward 2030. It finds that while renewable energy is expected to grow, the EU is not on track to meet the European Commission's recommended 55% emissions reduction target due to slow fossil fuel phase-outs and insufficient wind and solar deployment, particularly in seven specific member states.

• Renewable electricity generation is projected to nearly double by 2030, providing almost 60% of EU electricity, with wind and solar contributing at least 40% of the supply.
• The EU is not currently on track to achieve the European Commission's recommended 55% reduction in total emissions by 2030. To reach this goal, wind and solar deployment must increase by approximately one third, adding about 25TWh per year compared to current NECP plans, to reach a total of 1500TWh of production from these sources.
• Fossil fuels are expected to still generate approximately 25% of EU electricity by 2030. Total fossil fuel generation is projected to drop by about 30% from 2018 levels to roughly 870 TWh. Coal generation is only expected to decrease by 53% compared to 2018, supplying about 282TWh in 2030.
• Seven EU countries are identified as the primary barriers to the electricity transition, collectively responsible for 80% of the EU's power sector emissions by 2030. These are divided into those with 'limited or no progress' (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Romania, and Poland) and those with 'slow progress' (Germany and Italy).
• By 2030, four countries—Germany, Poland, Italy, and Czechia—will account for approximately 70% of all emissions from electricity generation in the EU, an increase from just over 60% in 2018. Germany and Poland alone will represent more than half of the EU total.
• Nuclear power generation in the EU-27 is expected to decline by approximately 19% by 2030, largely driven by the total phase-out of nuclear plants in Germany by the end of 2022. Conversely, Finland and Hungary are targeting increases in nuclear output.

APA

Ember (2020). Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7

Chicago

Ember. Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030. 2020. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030 |date=9 November 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2020vision, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Vision or Division? What NECPs tell us about the EU power sector in 2030}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/necp7}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }