Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase

India's solar energy is entering an "accelerating growth" phase, with solar and wind projected to meet 66% of power generation growth by FY 2032. While daytime peak demand is increasingly aligned with solar generation, significant challenges remain in managing non-solar hour demand. The report emphasizes that achieving NEP14 targets requires a 36% annual increase in solar capacity additions and a substantial build-out of battery and pumped hydro storage to ensure grid stability and avoid reliance on new coal capacity.

• Solar and wind power are projected to drive the majority of India's electricity generation growth between FY 2022 and FY 2032, accounting for 66% of the total increase, a sharp contrast to the previous decade where coal drove approximately 80% of growth.
• Solar adoption is transitioning into an "accelerating growth" phase, with its share of the power generation mix expected to rise from 5% in FY 2022 to 25% by FY 2032 if NEP14 targets are met.
• To reach the NEP14 solar capacity target of 185.6 GW by FY 2026-27, India must increase its annual solar capacity additions by approximately 36% each year, ramping up from the 12.9 GW commissioned in FY 2023 to 41 GW by FY 2027.
• India is experiencing a shift in peak demand toward midday solar hours, but significant power shortages persist during non-solar hours, highlighting the need for dispatchable capacity to manage the "duck curve" effect.
• NEP14 storage targets for battery and pumped hydro are designed to shift approximately 15% of renewable energy generation to non-solar hours by FY 2032, which is essential to prevent power shortages and avoid expanding coal capacity.
• Co-located solar and battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming cost-competitive with coal, with recent bids indicating levelized costs between 4.04 and 4.34 Rs/kWh, compared to an average coal generation cost of 4.26 Rs/kWh in FY 2023.

APA

Lolla, A., Lee, U., Dizon, R., Yuan, Y., & Candlin, A. (2023). Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake

Chicago

Lolla, Aditya, Uni Lee, Reynaldo Dizon, Ye Yuan, and Ali Candlin. Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase. Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lolla |first1=Aditya |last2=Lee |first2=Uni |last3=Dizon |first3=Reynaldo |last4=Yuan |first4=Ye |last5=Candlin |first5=Ali |title=Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase |publisher=Ember |date=3 October 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lolla2023solar, author = {Lolla, Aditya and Lee, Uni and Dizon, Reynaldo and Yuan, Ye and Candlin, Ali}, title = {{Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = oct, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }