Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase

This report by Ember analyzes India's transition toward solar energy, focusing on the targets set by the 14th National Electricity Plan (NEP14). It details the shift from coal-dominated growth to a phase of "accelerating growth" for solar and wind, while emphasizing the critical need for grid flexibility and storage to manage peak demand during non-solar hours.

• Solar and wind power are projected to drive the majority of India's electricity generation growth between FY 2022 and FY 2032, accounting for 66% of the total increase. This is a reversal from the previous decade (FY 2012-2022), where coal-fired generation accounted for approximately 83% of growth.
• Solar energy in India is entering an "accelerating growth" phase. Its share of the power generation mix is projected to rise from 5% in FY 2022 to 17% by FY 2027, and eventually reach 25% by FY 2032.
• To meet the NEP14 target of 185.6 GW of solar capacity by FY 2026-27, India must increase its annual solar capacity addition by approximately 36% each year. This follows a record addition of 12.9 GW in FY 2023.
• India is experiencing a "duck curve" effect where net electricity demand rises sharply as solar generation decreases in the evening. Recent data shows significant peak shortages during non-solar hours; for example, on September 1, 2023, there was a shortage of approximately 7.5 GW at 22:40 hours despite meeting an evening peak demand of 213 GW.
• Storage capacity is essential to shift variable renewable energy (VRE) generation to non-solar hours. NEP14 targets for battery and pumped hydro storage are expected to enable the shifting of approximately 6% of RE generation by FY 2027 and 15% by FY 2032.
• Co-located solar and storage is becoming cost-competitive with coal. Recent bids for co-located solar and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) indicate an aggregate cost between Rs 4.04-4.3/kWh, which is comparable to the average coal generation cost of Rs 4.26/kWh in FY 2022-23.

APA

Lolla, A., Lee, U., Dizon, R., Yuan, Y., & Candlin, A. (2023). Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake

Chicago

Lolla, Aditya, Uni Lee, Reynaldo Dizon, Ye Yuan, and Ali Candlin. Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase. Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lolla |first1=Aditya |last2=Lee |first2=Uni |last3=Dizon |first3=Reynaldo |last4=Yuan |first4=Ye |last5=Candlin |first5=Ali |title=Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase |publisher=Ember |date=3 October 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lolla2023solar, author = {Lolla, Aditya and Lee, Uni and Dizon, Reynaldo and Yuan, Ye and Candlin, Ali}, title = {{Solar adoption in India entering “accelerating growth” phase}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = oct, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/india-solar-uptake}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }