Weapons of Mass Agility: A New Threat Framework for Mass Effects in the 21st Century

The author contends that the U.S. national security focus on CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear) weapons as the sole definition of WMD fails to account for modern technological convergence and the trend of using these agents for targeted strategic impacts rather than mass casualties. To address this, the briefing introduces the concept of 'weapons of mass agility'—technologies that can cause mass effects but also operate at the lower end of the destruction spectrum for strategic gain. The proposed framework evaluates threats based on six criteria: potential for mass effects, malicious intent, significant second and third order effects, minimal target dependency, high density of effects, and a 'fear factor'. This approach aims to integrate cyber weapons, drone swarms, and the 'digitization of biology' into a cohesive threat assessment model to avoid a 'failure of imagination' in national security strategy.

• The traditional WMD paradigm, focused on CBRN, is outdated because it fails to recognize that state actors increasingly use these weapons for targeted strategic impacts, such as assassinations, rather than mass destruction.
• Technological convergence is blurring the lines between physical and digital threats, creating gaps in U.S. strategy where cyber weapons and CBRN are treated as separate bureaucratic silos.
• The 'digitization of biology' allows actors to recreate dangerous pathogens using online genomic data and gene synthesis, removing the need for a physical sample of a virus.
• The private sector now leads the development of advanced technologies with military applications, making potentially dangerous tools more accessible and easier to use than traditional CBRN weapons.
• The author proposes a 'weapons of mass agility' framework defined by six specific criteria to identify and prioritize threats with mass effects potential.
• Existing U.S. government definitions of 'mass destruction' and 'mass casualties' are ambiguous and lack clear thresholds, making the designation of WMD appear arbitrary.

APA

Bajema, N. E. (2021). Weapons of Mass Agility: A New Threat Framework for Mass Effects in the 21st Century. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Weapons-of-Mass-Agility_A-New-Threat-Framework-for-Mass-Effects-in-the-21st-Century_BRIEFER-18_2021_05_03.pdf

Chicago

Bajema, Natasha E. Weapons of Mass Agility: A New Threat Framework for Mass Effects in the 21st Century. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Weapons-of-Mass-Agility_A-New-Threat-Framework-for-Mass-Effects-in-the-21st-Century_BRIEFER-18_2021_05_03.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bajema |first1=Natasha E. |title=Weapons of Mass Agility: A New Threat Framework for Mass Effects in the 21st Century |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=3 May 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Weapons-of-Mass-Agility_A-New-Threat-Framework-for-Mass-Effects-in-the-21st-Century_BRIEFER-18_2021_05_03.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bajema2021weapons, author = {Bajema, Natasha E.}, title = {{Weapons of Mass Agility: A New Threat Framework for Mass Effects in the 21st Century}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Weapons-of-Mass-Agility_A-New-Threat-Framework-for-Mass-Effects-in-the-21st-Century_BRIEFER-18_2021_05_03.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }