Pathogen Detection, Mapping and Early Warning: Opportunities & Obstacles on the Path Toward Preventing Future Pandemics

The Council on Strategic Risks identifies a gap between the existing technical capacity for real-time pathogen surveillance and the actual implementation in the United States. While tools like next-generation sequencing and metagenomics enable rapid detection, the U.S. response is hindered by outdated data sharing methods, such as fax machines, and a lack of a trusted, neutral entity to manage global health data. The report advocates for a 'wartime footing' to modernize public health infrastructure and create a coordinated, potentially independent, data-focused institute to manage pathogen information.

• Technological advancements have made real-time pathogen early warning and predictive modeling technically feasible, driven by lower DNA sequencing costs and the use of multiplexing.
• Effective surveillance can be achieved through semi-centralized systems that pool barcoded DNA samples or decentralized approaches where individuals act as sensors using nanopores or molecular transistors.
• The United States fails to utilize available tools at scale due to antiquated information-sharing systems, including the continued use of fax machines and fragmented health records.
• There is a critical lack of a neutral, trusted entity to manage, anonymize, and secure the vast amounts of data required for a global early warning system.
• Proposed models for a trusted data entity include a new independent data-focused institute, a U.S. federal government system, or bottom-up grassroots progress similar to Wikipedia.
• The report urges the immediate adoption of a 'wartime footing' to address data-related pathogen detection and response to mitigate the current COVID-19 crisis and prevent future pandemics.

APA

Parthemore, C. (2020). Pathogen Detection, Mapping and Early Warning: Opportunities & Obstacles on the Path Toward Preventing Future Pandemics. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathogen-Detection-Mapping-and-Early-Warning_BRIEFER-10_2020_9.pdf

Chicago

Parthemore, Christine. Pathogen Detection, Mapping and Early Warning: Opportunities & Obstacles on the Path Toward Preventing Future Pandemics. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathogen-Detection-Mapping-and-Early-Warning_BRIEFER-10_2020_9.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Parthemore |first1=Christine |title=Pathogen Detection, Mapping and Early Warning: Opportunities & Obstacles on the Path Toward Preventing Future Pandemics |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=9 September 2020 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathogen-Detection-Mapping-and-Early-Warning_BRIEFER-10_2020_9.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{parthemore2020pathogen, author = {Parthemore, Christine}, title = {{Pathogen Detection, Mapping and Early Warning: Opportunities \& Obstacles on the Path Toward Preventing Future Pandemics}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathogen-Detection-Mapping-and-Early-Warning_BRIEFER-10_2020_9.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }