How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach

The document examines the 'weaponization' of migration, where states like Belarus use vulnerable people as political pawns, and warns that intensifying climate change will increase this risk. It highlights how misinformation and the lack of international legal protections for 'climate refugees' make displaced populations susceptible to manipulation. The author argues that the U.S. is vulnerable to similar tactics due to its 'broken immigration system' and the confusion surrounding programs like Temporary Protected Status (TPS). To mitigate these risks, the briefing recommends that the U.S. reexamine the definition of a refugee to include climate-displaced persons, implement regional free-movement agreements, and utilize humanitarian parole for climate-vulnerable populations.

• Rogue states can weaponize migration by using misinformation and disinformation to coerce vulnerable people into overwhelming the borders of adversaries, as demonstrated by Belarus's actions against the EU in 2021.
• Climate change acts as a risk multiplier for migration; while rarely the sole cause, it amplifies the decision to relocate by exacerbating resource stress and economic instability, as seen in Pakistan where flooding displaced nearly 8 million people.
• People displaced by climate change are particularly vulnerable to manipulation because they lack international legal protection, as the 1951 Refugee Convention does not formally recognize 'climate refugees'.
• Confusion over U.S. immigration policies, such as the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, can lead to mass irregular migration events, such as the influx of Haitians at Del Rio, Texas, in September 2021.
• Mexico serves as a 'migratory gatekeeper' for the United States, providing the Mexican government with political leverage in negotiations regarding trade (USMCA) and energy policy.
• To reduce the risk of weaponized migration, the U.S. should consider interpreting the 'particular social group' category of refugee definitions to include those displaced by climate change and explore regional free-movement agreements.

APA

Wright, K. (2023). How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/43-Weaponized-Climate-Migration.pdf

Chicago

Wright, Katelin. How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/43-Weaponized-Climate-Migration.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wright |first1=Katelin |title=How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=8 March 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/43-Weaponized-Climate-Migration.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wright2023how, author = {Wright, Katelin}, title = {{How the United States Can Prevent the Weaponization of Climate Migration in a Warming World: A Humane Approach}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/43-Weaponized-Climate-Migration.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }